In April, Russian natural gas exports to Europe through the TurkStream pipeline experienced a notable decline, with average daily shipments decreasing to approximately 41 million cubic meters. This figure represents a year-on-year drop of about 1.7% and reflects a significant reduction of over 25% compared to March’s volumes. The downturn in gas flows is attributed to increased volatility in global energy markets, exacerbated by disruptions related to the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz, which is critical for oil and liquefied natural gas transport.
The TurkStream pipeline, which spans around 930 kilometers beneath the Black Sea, serves as the sole active transit route for Russian gas supplies heading to European markets following the expiration of the Russia–Ukraine gas transit agreement in early 2025. The infrastructure connects Russia’s coast near Anapa with Kiyikoy in Turkey, subsequently linking to Balkan pipeline networks that extend into Central and Western Europe.
With a total annual transport capacity of 31.5 billion cubic meters, approximately half of this capacity is designated for the Turkish domestic market, while the remainder is allocated for exports to European nations. In April, total Russian gas deliveries via TurkStream amounted to around 1.23 billion cubic meters, slightly lower than the 1.25 billion cubic meters recorded during the same month in the previous year.
Despite the weaker performance in April, cumulative exports for the first four months of 2023 showed an increase of about 7.3% compared to the same timeframe in 2022, totaling nearly 6.2 billion cubic meters. However, it is essential to note that Russian pipeline gas exports to Europe have significantly declined in recent years. Estimates indicate that deliveries plummeted by roughly 44% last year, reaching around 18 billion cubic meters, marking the lowest export levels since the 1970s due to the cessation of flows through Ukraine.
This decline contrasts sharply with peak export levels seen in 2018 and 2019 when Russian gas shipments to Europe approached 180 billion cubic meters annually. The ongoing geopolitical tensions and market uncertainties continue to shape the dynamics of energy supply routes and pricing across Europe.
