Following the Sunday trough, most day-ahead prices in Southeast Europe and Central Europe moved sharply higher on Monday. HUPX rose to €91.89/MWh, up €31.9/MWh day on day, while Romania settled at €90.24/MWh, Slovenia at €87.85/MWh, Croatia at €87.23/MWh, Greece at €86.75/MWh and Bulgaria at €85.71/MWh. The regional price floor remained in Serbia, where SEEPEX settled at €53.40/MWh, still €38.49/MWh below HUPX.
Italy set the upper anchor at €130.02/MWh, which was €38.13/MWh above HUPX. The resulting map split the region into three groups: a closely clustered HU/RO/BG/GR/SI/HR core, a discounted Western Balkans pocket led by Serbia, and a higher-priced Italian sink.
Load recovery and import flows shift on Monday
The demand signal was cited as the main driver of the move in day-ahead prices. Regional consumption increased to 28.944 GW, up 3.337 GW versus Sunday, while total net imports fell to 1.652 GW, down 1.325 GW. The higher load was therefore partly absorbed by stronger internal generation and stronger solar output rather than by a proportional rise in imports.
Core imports from Austria and Slovakia into HU/SI remained substantial at 2.970 GW, but were lower by 1.159 GW. The region exported 1.055 GW toward Italy, consistent with Italy’s higher clearing price.
Solar forecast drives intraday price shape
Solar was described as the decisive intraday factor shaping price profiles. The regional solar forecast jumped to 7.296 GW, up 2.812 GW day on day, while wind reached 1.160 GW, up only 77 MW.
This generation mix was linked to strong midday price compression and an evening scarcity profile. On HUPX, the daily minimum occurred around the solar-heavy midday period, while the maximum shifted into the evening as Hungary’s spot profile rose sharply after the daytime trough.
Cross-border balances show uneven net positions
The cross-border balance for the HU+SEE area indicated it remained a net importer by 1.652 GW, but with uneven distribution across countries. Croatia recorded the largest import position at -1.141 GW, followed by Romania at -904 MW, Serbia at -418 MW and Hungary at -269 MW.
Bulgaria exported 489 MW, while Greece exported 264 MW, with Albania also showing positive values in detailed country data . The physical balance was noted as not fully matching the price map, with Serbia discounted yet still import-dependent.
Serbia’s discounted pricing contrasts with its net import position
Serbia remained highlighted for its dislocation between price levels and system balance outcomes. SEEPEX settled at €53.40/MWh, far below HUPX and below Romania, Croatia, Slovenia, Bulgaria and Greece.
Despite that discount, Serbia’s system balance showed consumption of 3.276 GW, generation of 2.858 GW, and net exports of -418 MW, indicating a net import position . The disclosed Serbian generation mix was coal-heavy at around 71%, with hydro around 23%, wind around 5% and gas around 1%.
Bulgaria supports balancing; Croatia remains structurally short
Bulgaria was described as providing regional balancing support through its generation surplus and export flows. Its consumption reached 3.807 GW, generation was 4.296 GW, and exports totaled 489 MW, with flows turning strongly toward Romania and Serbia in detailed border data.
Bulgaria exports; Greece returns to net export; Croatia imports regional flexibility
The same balance pattern extended to Greece and Croatia in different directions on Monday . Greece returned to a net export position of 264 MW, with generation of 6.072 GW against consumption of 5.808 GW. Croatia stayed structurally short, with consumption of 1.939 GW, generation of only
