Day-ahead electricity prices for Saturday delivery fell across Southeast Europe after lower weekend consumption and strong solar generation pushed regional markets below €100/MWh. Traders continued to monitor evening price swings despite the decline in average levels. Tighter transmission conditions are expected later in July, alongside declining hydropower availability in parts of the region.
Regional day-ahead settlements converge for weekend delivery
Regional market outcomes showed stronger alignment versus the previous working week. SEEPEX settled at €94.24/MWh, while IBEX Bulgaria reached €93.46/MWh. OPCOM Romania was at €93.75/MWh, CROPEX Croatia at €95.40/MWh, HUPX Hungary at €97.34/MWh, BSP SouthPool Slovenia at €98.22/MWh and HENEX Greece at €98.82/MWh.
The spread between the main contracts narrowed to slightly above €5/MWh, indicating a high degree of convergence across Central and Southeast European markets for weekend delivery. The weekend decline followed significantly higher prices on Friday.
Friday levels higher as Serbia remains lowest-priced
On Friday, Hungary traded above €123/MWh, Slovenia above €125/MWh and Croatia approached €120/MWh. Serbia remained the lowest-priced market among the main SEE exchanges at €106.01/MWh. The subsequent correction was linked to weaker weekend consumption and stronger renewable output rather than an improvement in regional supply conditions.
Midday solar output drives near-zero prices; evenings rebound
Hourly volatility remained a key indicator for market participants. Strong solar generation during midday hours pushed several regional markets toward €0/MWh during peak photovoltaic production, while evening demand lifted prices back to around €159/MWh. Intraday spreads reached roughly €160/MWh.
This pattern affected expectations for flexibility needs, including battery storage and flexible hydropower, along with cross-border trading strategies.
Weekend demand down; hydropower weaker than spring
The weekend demand profile provided temporary relief for electricity systems across Southeast Europe. Combined demand across major regional markets declined by around 6.5% compared with Friday, with industrial consumption weakening while residential demand stayed relatively stable during warm summer conditions.
Hydropower conditions were described as another constraint on flexibility. Reservoir output has weakened compared with spring levels even as hydro generation continues to support evening demand peaks. Lower hydro availability is expected to increase reliance on thermal generation, electricity imports and other flexible resources during higher-demand periods.
Cross-border flows and interconnector use shape pricing
Bulgaria remained the main exporting market, supported by stable nuclear generation and strong solar output. Serbia, Croatia and Hungary continued relying on imports during certain hours.
Montenegro maintained its strategic use of the subsea interconnector with Italy, providing an export route when domestic generation exceeded local consumption.
Tightening import capacity risk later in July
Transmission constraints are expected to become a growing market risk during the second half of July. Available import capacity on some corridors is forecast to tighten, including reduced capacity from Bosnia and Herzegovina toward Serbia.
Congestion remains elevated on several strategic interconnections linking Southeast Europe with Italy, Austria and Türkiye. Market participants warned that higher temperatures, thermal plant outages or weaker hydro generation could quickly reverse current weekend price weakness.
Storage projects expand; grid build-out continues across the region
Battery storage continued to be highlighted as a long-term theme for the region’s power system. Developers in Romania, Bulgaria, Greece, Croatia and Slovenia are advancing utility-scale storage projects designed to capture large intraday price differences while providing balancing and ancillary services.
Grid development also remains central to the energy transition described for the region. Romania is expanding transmission infrastructure for new renewable capacity, while Greece is advancing island interconnections and offshore grid projects.
In Serbia, renewable energy policy developments continue alongside investor focus on transmission access, connection capacity and project implementation timelines.
Next-week drivers: temperatures, hydrology and transmission availability
The outlook for the coming week depends largely on temperature trends, hydrological conditions and transmission availability. Weekend price declines are described as unlikely to persist if demand rebounds while hydro resources continue to weaken.
Until large-scale storage becomes more widely available, the gap between low-cost solar hours and expensive evening balancing periods is expected to remain a defining feature of Southeast Europe’s electricity market.
