On 19 June 2026, the regional power market shifted into a more clearly bifurcated pattern, with northern and central European markets remaining structurally tight while Southeast Europe saw stronger renewable generation, particularly solar and wind. The change was reflected in a sharp divergence between Hungary and the southern Balkan markets.
Spot prices diverge across Hungary, Serbia and the Balkans
Hungary stayed as the highest-priced market in the region at €115.75/MWh, down by almost €18/MWh versus the previous day. Serbia was the only major market to move sharply higher, with SEEPEX at €111.05/MWh, up almost €32/MWh. Romania settled at €105.99/MWh, Slovenia at €105.52/MWh, and Croatia at €103.98/MWh.
Bulgaria and Greece remained significantly lower at €81.88/MWh and €76.84/MWh, respectively. The pricing pattern indicated that renewable output increasingly suppressed prices in southern markets, while congestion and localized balancing needs supported premiums in Serbia and Hungary.
Generation rises as wind and solar output increase
Regional electricity consumption increased to approximately 30.2 GW, while total generation rose to about 30.6 GW. This shift moved the region from a significant importer position to a modest net exporter. Wind generation increased by more than 1.1 GW day on day, while solar output rose by over 540 MW.
The generation mix was reported as Solar 21%, Hydro 20%, Nuclear 17%, Coal 15%, Gas 14%, and Wind 9%. With renewables accounting for roughly half of total regional generation, intraday pricing behavior increasingly reflected weather-dependent supply.
Hungary sets regional reference; Serbia trades at a premium
The Hungarian market continued to operate as the principal price reference for the wider SEE region. The Hungary–Germany spread widened to €7.57/MWh, reversing a previously negative differential. Imports into Hungary from Austria and Slovakia shifted to positive territory, indicating renewed reliance on western flows during peak hours.
Forward pricing remained notably bullish, with Week 26 Hungary baseload at €137.50/MWh, Week 27 at €128.50/MWh, July 2026 at €119.00/MWh, and Calendar 2026 at €110.50/MWh. These levels were described as significantly above current spot prices in much of SEE.
The most notable spot-market divergence came from Serbia’s pricing behavior. While most regional markets declined sharply, SEEPEX increased to €111/MWh. Serbia’s price was reported above Croatia, Bulgaria, Greece and Montenegro despite generally favorable renewable conditions across the region.
Serbia’s local constraints show up in balancing costs and flexibility
The report linked Serbia’s pricing outcome to reduced flexibility after slowing approvals of new grid-connected renewable projects. It also cited higher balancing costs, greater dependence on imports during specific hours, and limited availability of new merchant renewable capacity.
This combination was described as producing localized scarcity pricing in Serbia despite broader regional oversupply conditions.
Cross-border commercial flows point to Italy as a destination market
Commercial flow data showed continued exports from Central Europe toward Southeast Europe. The largest observed average movements included Hungary → Austria at approximately 705 MW, Slovenia → Italy at approximately 692 MW, Hungary → Slovakia at approximately 601 MW, and Romania → Hungary at approximately 420 MW.
The flow pattern indicated that Italy remained the premium destination market, drawing exports from Slovenia and neighboring systems when transmission capacity allowed.
Fuel prices ease; carbon stays stable near €80/t
The daily bulletin said fuel indicators remained supportive for lower electricity prices. Gas benchmarks softened further, with CEGH Austrian Gas at €42.21/MWh and Greece’s gas benchmark at €40.07/MWh.
Coal prices also continued declining, with API2 July 2026 at €110.5/t and Q3 2026 at €109.5/t. Carbon allowances were reported stable near EUA Dec-2026 at €80.01/t.
Batteries expand while data-center demand grows in Greece
The bulletin highlighted developments pointing to a shift in SEE market priorities toward flexibility resources. Bulgaria commissioned a battery energy storage facility of 602 MWh in Burgas developed by Solarpro and CATL.
Romania commissioned a hybrid project combining 26 MW solar with a battery storage component of 10.67 MWh. Greece reported more than 4.5 GW of data center connection requests.
Summer trading patterns emphasize evening spreads and intraday volatility
The trading outlook described a summer pattern in which strong solar output suppresses midday prices across most markets while evening ramps remain expensive. Intraday volatility was reported as elevated, supporting value for battery operators and flexible generation assets.
The report said Hungary continued acting as the regional benchmark while Serbia behaved increasingly as a separate premium zone driven by local balancing dynamics rather than broader regional fundamentals. For late June into early July, it cited rising renewable output, lower gas prices, stable carbon costs and moderate temperatures alongside attractive evening peak spreads for storage operators.
