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Renewables expand faster than demand as Week 24 prices fall in Southeast Europe

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Southeast Europe entered the second week of June with regional electricity demand rising while wholesale power prices declined. Total demand reached 15.85 TWh in Week 24, up 692.9 GWh or 4.6% from the previous week. Warmer temperatures and higher cooling needs supported stronger consumption, but most day-ahead markets reported lower average prices.

Weekly price moves across major markets

The price correction extended across multiple countries in the region. Serbia recorded the largest weekly drop, with the average day-ahead price down 21.5% to €78.22/MWh. Bulgaria fell by 7.2%, Croatia by 7.3%, Romania by 4.7%, Hungary by 4.3%, and Italy by 3.8%.

Greece was the only major market to post an increase, with prices up 2.6% to €91.53/MWh. Italy remained the region’s premium market at €123.17/MWh. The pattern of lower prices contrasted with Greece’s rise during the same week.

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Renewable generation growth supports softer wholesale pricing

Lower prices were linked to continued growth in renewable energy production across the region. Variable renewable generation increased to 3.64 TWh, up 518.6 GWh or 16.6% week on week. Wind output rose by 308.4 GWh to 1.40 TWh, while solar generation climbed by 210.2 GWh to 2.23 TWh.

The additional renewable supply was sufficient to offset the price pressure that would typically accompany stronger seasonal demand and rising temperatures.

Hydropower weakness increases thermal balancing role

Hydropower moved in the opposite direction within the generation mix. Regional hydro production fell by 300.2 GWh, or 7.5%, to 3.70 TWh. This decline increased reliance on conventional generation for balancing.

Thermal power output rose by 362.6 GWh, or 8.7%, reaching 4.52 TWh. Coal and lignite recorded the strongest increase, up 24.4% to 2.14 TWh, as operators compensated for reduced hydro availability.

Week 24 signals a more complex summer market profile

The Week 24 outcome reflected more than a single-direction price story, with wholesale prices softening alongside changes in generation structure. As hydropower weakened, thermal balancing resources took on a larger role in system operation.

This combination can affect trading conditions during summer sessions, with strong solar and wind production continuing to suppress daytime prices while tighter hydro conditions and higher evening demand keep thermal generation closer to the margin.

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