Day-ahead electricity prices recovered across most South East Europe (SEE) trading hubs in the 17 June 2026 session, alongside stronger demand and higher thermal generation. Hungary’s HUPX base price increased to €123.79/MWh, up €8.3/MWh day-on-day, while Romania reached €121.48/MWh. Bulgaria and Greece traded around €119.3/MWh, Slovenia at €118.09/MWh, and Croatia at €118.72/MWh. Italy remained the highest reference market at €134.54/MWh, keeping a €10.75/MWh premium over HUPX.
Serbia diverges from SEE day-ahead pricing
Serbia was the clear outlier in the regional price set. The SEEPEX day-ahead price fell to €83.87/MWh, down €14.8/MWh, widening the discount versus Hungary to €39.92/MWh. Albania traded at €99.68/MWh, Montenegro at €103.74/MWh, and North Macedonia at €97.20/MWh, each below Central SEE benchmarks.
Demand and temperatures lift consumption; imports turn positive
Demand conditions were cited as the dominant physical driver for pricing during the session. Regional consumption rose to 29,444 MW, up 1,200 MW day-on-day, supported by higher temperatures averaging 21.8°C across SEE and Hungary, with Greece reaching 24.9°C. The system moved back into a net import position of 611 MW, compared with net exports the previous day.
Cross-border flows reflected that shift in balance. Inflows from the CORE region (AT+SK) increased sharply to 1,544 MW, while flows toward Italy remained negative at -841 MW.
Generation mix changes as wind output falls
Total generation increased to 28,437 MW, up 1,359 MW day-on-day, with supply composition highlighted as more important than overall output levels. Solar generation stayed strong at 6,792 MW, hydro improved to 6,084 MW, coal rose to 4,841 MW, gas surged to 4,473 MW, and nuclear increased to 4,829 MW.
The main weakness came from wind output dropping sharply to just 685 MW, down 329 MW. With lower wind availability during non-solar hours, thermal generation was relied on more heavily.
Solar midday compression followed by evening recovery
The session’s intraday pattern followed a transitional summer profile described through solar and wind effects on price formation. Midday solar production continued to suppress intraday prices while reduced wind generation combined with higher demand pushed gas and coal higher in the merit order during evening ramp periods.
This contributed to stronger baseload pricing and increased volatility around peak hours across regional markets.
Cross-border flows show Bulgaria exporting; Serbia remains import-dependent
Cross-border movements were also used to describe regional segmentation in system balancing. Bulgaria was the largest net exporter at approximately 1,295 MW. Croatia imported around 1,153 MW, Serbia about 508 MW, Hungary roughly 509 MW, and Romania approximately 248 MW.
Greece remained close to balance with a small export position of around 33 MW. This flow pattern placed Bulgaria as a key exporter while Serbia and neighboring markets were described as structurally import-dependent on the day.
Intraday ranges widen; forwards ease for fuels but rise for power
Hourly pricing patterns across HUPX, OPCOM, BSP, and HENEX showed consistent behavior with solar-driven midday compression followed by an evening recovery. Hungary’s intraday range illustrated this with a minimum around €51.7/MWh and a maximum close to €192.9/MWh.
Fuel and carbon signals were described as easing slightly despite stronger spot electricity prices: CEGH gas was €43.58/MWh, Greek gas was €42.05/MWh, and EUAs were €79.85/t. Hungarian power forwards moved higher instead, with WK26 at €129.50/MWh, WK27 at €123.00/MWh, and July 2026 at €119.00/MWh.
The Hungary–Germany spread widened to €21.50/MWh, while the change in forwards was linked to factors including weather variability and wind shortfall alongside import dependence and evening scarcity conditions.
Divergence around Serbia and arbitrage constraints
The trading signal highlighted was the growing gap between Serbia and the regional core market pricing structure . The nearly €40/MWh discount between SEEPEX and HUPX was described as unusually wide for arbitrage activity that depends on cross-border capacity availability and physical flow constraints.
Within the broader Balkan cluster—Montenegro, Albania and North Macedonia—discounts versus Hungary were also noted as persistent . Monetization of those spreads was described as limited for participants without firm transmission access and flexible cross-border positioning.
