Day-ahead electricity prices in Southeast Europe strengthened on Friday amid weaker wind generation, firm gas prices and lower imports that tightened the regional power balance. Serbia remained an outlier, with prices on the SEEPEX exchange trading significantly below those in neighbouring markets.
Coupled market baseload prices move higher
Hungary’s HUPX baseload price rose by €5.60/MWh to €208.98/MWh, nearly matching Romania at €208.46/MWh. Croatia and Slovenia followed at €206.74/MWh and €206.58/MWh, respectively. Bulgaria recorded the largest increase among the larger coupled markets, with its baseload price up €12.20/MWh to €200.66/MWh.
Slightly cooler weather across Hungary and most of Southeast Europe coincided with the higher pricing. Regional electricity demand was forecast to increase by 184 MW to an average 31,668 MW. Romania and Bulgaria accounted for most of the rise, contributing a combined 449 MW increase.
Wind output falls while solar holds steady
Renewable generation prospects weakened as forecast regional wind output fell by 700 MW to 1,246 MW. Solar generation declined by 108 MW to 5,779 MW over the same period. The drop in wind availability increased reliance on thermal generation and imports during periods of stronger demand.
Regional net imports declined by 180 MW to 1,370 MW. Flows from Austria and Slovakia towards Hungary and Slovenia fell by 292 MW to 1,449 MW, reducing access to relatively cheaper electricity from core European markets.
Italy remains a net export destination
Southeast Europe continued exporting to Italy, with flows of around 635 MW, up by 50 MW from the previous day. Italy’s price declined sharply but remained the highest among the monitored markets at €216.25/MWh. This kept an incentive for exports towards the west.
Hungary’s premium over Germany widened to €13.75/MWh, up €2.20/MWh, while its premium over Greece increased to €26.56/MWh. Germany settled at €195.23/MWh and Greece eased to €182.42/MWh. Austria traded close to Hungary at €209.03/MWh.
Gas, carbon and forward power prices firm up
Austrian CEGH gas rose by €2.40/MWh to €83.17/MWh, while Greek gas prices increased to €63/MWh. EU carbon allowances edged higher to €85.82/t, lifting short-run generation costs for gas- and coal-fired power plants.
Forward electricity prices stayed elevated in Hungary, with the October baseload contract up €4.50/MWh to €198/MWh and the calendar contract rising by €4 to €154.50/MWh. October and fourth-quarter gas contracts climbed to €83.50/MWh.
Near-term Hungarian contracts moved lower: week 38 fell by €7.50/MWh to €183/MWh and week 39 declined by €6/MWh to €186.50/MWh. The divergence reflected expectations of some short-term easing alongside continued pricing of fuel and winter supply risks into October and longer-dated contracts.
Serbia posts a wider discount on SEEPEX
Serbia was the main regional outlier as SEEPEX fell by €10.20/MWh to €164.14/MWh. That left the Serbian market at a discount of €44.84/MWh versus Hungary and more than €42/MWh below Croatia.
Serbia’s average net import position stood at around 650 MW, but imports did not close the price gap with coupled markets trading above higher levels . Montenegro rose by €30.70/MWh to €185.33/MWh, while North Macedonia increased by €46.50/MWh to €179.88/MWh.
Albania climbed to €197.58/MWh, narrowing its discount to Hungary to €11.40/MWh . Across Southeast Europe, expensive gas, weaker wind generation and reduced imports from core Europe left power markets more exposed to sharp daily price movements.
