Day-ahead electricity prices in Southeast Europe softened in Week 24 while renewable output rose and wholesale prices declined across most markets. At the same time, hydropower generation fell sharply, changing how balancing needs were met.
Hydropower contraction across Southeast Europe
Regional hydropower production decreased by 300.2 GWh, or 7.5%, to 3.70 TWh. Türkiye accounted for the largest share of the decline, with hydro output down 229 GWh, or 8.6%. That reduction represented more than three-quarters of the total regional fall.
Bulgaria also saw a significant contraction, with hydropower down 42.9 GWh, or 21.8%. Greece, Italy, Romania and Serbia recorded smaller decreases over the week.
Thermal generation rises as coal and lignite expand
Total thermal generation in Southeast Europe increased by 362.6 GWh, or 8.7%, reaching 4.52 TWh. Coal and lignite output rose by 420.6 GWh, or 24.4%, to 2.14 TWh during the same period.
Gas-fired generation fell by 58.0 GWh, or 2.4%, to 2.38 TWh. The change shifted the marginal fuel mix toward coal and lignite rather than gas-fired dispatch.
Country-level shifts in dispatchable supply
The region met higher demand alongside lower hydro availability through increased coal and lignite generation rather than through gas-fired output. Türkiye added 260.6 GWh of coal-fired generation, while Italy increased output by 81.2 GWh and Serbia added 66.0 GWh.
Bulgaria and Romania also recorded gains in thermal production as part of the broader increase in dispatchable generation across the region.
Diverging patterns in Greece and Croatia
Greece differed from the regional trend: its thermal generation declined by 6.3% even as electricity demand rose. Reductions in lignite and gas-fired output outweighed stronger consumption.
Croatia followed another distinct path, with hydropower increasing by 43.5%. This contrasted with hydropower declines recorded in most neighbouring markets during Week 24.
Implications for market balancing and contracting
The week’s data points to how system flexibility was sourced during periods of weaker hydro availability despite softer power prices. Renewables contributed to price softness while thermal units provided the additional balancing support required when hydropower output dropped.
For industrial consumers, traders and financial institutions assessing renewable PPAs, lower spot prices did not coincide with reduced balancing risk or lower emissions outcomes based on the week’s underlying generation shift.
