In January 2026, the dynamics of power pricing across South-East Europe were significantly impacted by fluctuations in gas markets. The volatility observed in the Title Transfer Facility (TTF) prompted a rapid repricing of electricity in gas-dependent regions, while areas less reliant on gas, particularly those with hydro resources, displayed divergent pricing trends.
Countries such as Italy, Hungary, Romania, and Bulgaria reported elevated electricity prices that were closely tied to gas market expectations rather than immediate supply-demand conditions. Average prices reached €132.67/MWh in Italy, €150.41/MWh in Hungary, €150.51/MWh in Romania, and €148.55/MWh in Bulgaria. These figures illustrate the strong influence of gas-linked marginal pricing in these markets.
Conversely, Greece and Serbia experienced a temporary decoupling from the regional price trends due to favorable hydro conditions that led to surplus electricity generation. However, this divergence is not expected to last indefinitely; analysts anticipate that as hydro conditions stabilize, the influence of gas volatility will reemerge and realign pricing across the region.
The developments in January underscored a critical observation: gas continues to be the dominant marginal driver of electricity prices throughout much of Europe and specifically within South-East Europe. Consequently, effective cross-commodity risk management strategies have become increasingly vital for market participants navigating this complex landscape.
