Electricity.Trade’s May 2026 gas-power analysis found that natural gas prices remained high enough to support wholesale electricity prices across Southeast Europe, even after easing from earlier sharp peaks. The average TTF front-month futures price reached €47.26/MWh in May, compared with €44.78/MWh in April. Prices mostly traded within a €44–50/MWh band during the month, with a peak of €50.25/MWh on 18 May.
Gas generation shares and their link to power prices
Gas-fired generation continued to influence electricity pricing in multiple Southeast European markets where it remains part of the power mix. Italy used natural gas for 34.07% of its electricity generation, the highest share among major markets in the region and also associated with the region’s top electricity price level. Greece generated 28.11% of its electricity from gas, while Romania’s gas share was 11.91%. In Romania, gas-fired generation rose by 35.23% versus April.
With renewable output expanding across the region, elevated gas prices still supported wholesale electricity prices. During May, Italy recorded an average electricity price of €119.35/MWh, while Romania averaged €109.56/MWh. Hungary’s average was €106.51/MWh and Croatia’s was €103.58/MWh.
May gas market drivers: Middle East tensions and LNG inflows
The May gas market reflected both supply risks and improved LNG availability, according to the report. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, the need to replenish European gas storage ahead of winter, steady structural demand and weather-related uncertainty all provided upward support for prices. At the same time, strong liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports limited further price increases.
New LNG supplies from producers outside the Gulf region increased by around 20% year on year. The additional volumes added nearly 8 bcm of supply and offset approximately 90% of disruption linked to lower Gulf LNG exports.
Implications for trading and contract pricing
These conditions left gas prices sufficiently elevated to keep thermal generation costs high across Southeast Europe without triggering another energy crisis. The same pricing environment contributed to wholesale electricity prices remaining elevated despite stronger renewable output during May.
In the second half of the month, moderation in gas prices did not shift Europe back into a low-cost natural gas setting. Electricity.Trade stated that May showed natural gas does not need dramatic price spikes to shape electricity markets; instead, relatively stable but elevated levels can act as a price floor. The report linked this environment to hedging strategies, power purchase agreement (PPA) pricing, industrial energy procurement, and the economics of battery storage and energy arbitrage.
