Electricity.Trade’s May 2026 market trend review shows that electricity demand across Southeast Europe moved in different directions, with some markets posting higher consumption while others saw declines. Wholesale electricity prices increased across most European SEE markets despite the contrasting demand outcomes. The pattern indicates that May’s price strength reflected multiple market drivers rather than demand alone.
Large-market demand growth and wholesale price levels
Among the region’s largest markets, Serbia recorded one of the strongest month-on-month increases in electricity demand at 4.26%. Italy followed with a 3.29% rise, while Greece posted a 2.44% increase. In these markets, higher consumption coincided with elevated wholesale prices.
Serbia’s average wholesale electricity price reached €96.63/MWh. Italy remained the highest-priced market in the region at €119.35/MWh, while Greece averaged €88.98/MWh. Greece’s pricing occurred despite strong renewable and hydroelectric generation.
In Serbia, rising demand aligned with weaker hydro production and net electricity imports of 422.97 GWh. These factors contributed to tighter market conditions during the month. The review links the combination of load growth and supply changes to the observed price level.
Demand declines alongside higher prices in several markets
Several other Southeast European markets recorded lower electricity demand while wholesale prices increased. Electricity consumption fell by 9.66% in Bulgaria, 7.51% in Hungary, and 5.09% in Türkiye. Declines were also reported for Croatia at 4.24% and Romania at 3.59%.
Bulgaria’s average electricity price rose by 11.08%, while Hungary’s increased by 10.31%. Croatia recorded a 14.55% increase, and Romania posted the largest rise at 14.66%. Despite weaker demand, these markets still saw upward movement in wholesale pricing.
The exception was Türkiye, where average electricity prices fell to €11.17/MWh. The review attributes the lower prices to weaker demand combined with abundant hydro generation and a different market environment compared with other regional systems.
Import dependence, fuel exposure and cross-border effects
The May results point to electricity price formation across Southeast Europe becoming more regional rather than driven only by domestic demand changes. Markets with declining consumption can still experience higher prices when they depend on imports or remain exposed to natural gas as the marginal fuel. Hydrological conditions and cross-border power flows also factor into monthly outcomes.
Croatia illustrates this dynamic through lower demand paired with net electricity imports of 583.90 GWh. Wholesale prices in Croatia rose sharply during the same period, according to the review data presented for May 2026.
Romania showed a similar pattern in the month’s figures, where falling demand coincided with a 77.31% decline in nuclear generation. Higher gas-fired output and continued reliance on electricity imports were also cited alongside the wholesale price increase for Romania.
Demand assessment alongside supply structure for forecasting
Electricity.Trade highlights that electricity demand needs to be analysed together with the region’s evolving supply structure. While consumption changes remain an important indicator, they no longer consistently explain wholesale price movements across SEE markets.
The review states that prices increasingly reflect combined effects from electricity demand, renewable generation, hydrological conditions, import dependency, cross-border power flows and natural gas prices. It also links improved forecasting to integrated market models that assess electricity load, generation mix, fuel costs and transmission constraints simultaneously.
