Week 24 spot trading and drivers for the late move
The decline late in the week followed easing concerns about possible disruptions to energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Political signals tied to Washington–Tehran discussions reduced immediate geopolitical risk premiums. Even with the correction, the weekly average remained slightly higher overall.
Support for the weekly average came alongside ongoing concerns about summer gas demand and storage refill obligations. Global LNG competition also intensified during the period, contributing to continued price sensitivity despite the lack of a clear breakout.
Forward curve spreads across TTF, Henry Hub and JKM
On the forward curve, the one-month TTF contract was assessed at €41.180/MWh, equivalent to $13.99/MMBtu. Over the same comparison points, Henry Hub traded at $3.24/MMBtu, or €9.54/MWh. As of June 16, JKM futures were at $15.940/MMBtu.
The resulting spread between US domestic gas and Asian LNG benchmarks continued to reflect Europe’s reliance on competitive LNG cargo allocation.
LNG inflow patterns in Greece, Croatia and Italy
LNG flow data showed mixed regional outcomes across Europe. Greece recorded a 29.8% fall in LNG inflows to 603.87 GWh, while Croatia was broadly stable at 640.83 GWh, down 0.7%. Italy reported an increase in LNG inflows of 34.11% to 3,803.52 GWh.
This shift indicated changing regional import dynamics as procurement conditions evolved.
Tightening procurement outlook into winter season
The European gas market remained stable at the surface level while underlying conditions stayed tense. Prices were not breaking higher, but the LNG procurement environment was described as gradually tightening ahead of winter.
Storage refill requirements, reduced Russian pipeline flexibility, and strong Asian demand competition were cited as factors keeping pricing sensitive into the heating season.
The market was not short of gas at the time, but it was increasingly pricing in the value of supply security for the upcoming heating season.
