Recent trends in the European gas market have shown a notable decline in prices, driven primarily by milder weather forecasts and robust liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply. Dutch TTF futures have dipped into the low €30s, reflecting a cooling of the demand surge that characterized late January. This sensitivity to short-term weather conditions underscores the market’s volatility and its reliance on immediate demand signals.
During the week of February 2-8, 2026, TTF futures for March delivery averaged €33.947/MWh, marking a significant week-on-week decrease of 10.6%. The contract opened at €33.95/MWh but faced downward pressure, dropping to €32.86/MWh on February 3 due to easing concerns regarding heating demand. However, volatility persisted, with a rebound to €35.69/MWh on February 6, indicating renewed apprehension about supply balances as forecasts hinted at colder conditions ahead.
Despite this price retreat, storage levels across the EU remain historically low. As of early February, inventories were approximately 37-41% full, significantly lower than the previous year’s levels of around 52%. Germany’s storage was reported at about 30.2%, France at 29%, and the Netherlands at approximately 23.5%. Projections indicate that these levels could fall to around 26% by the end of March, highlighting ongoing tightness in supply despite recent price declines.
Simultaneously, strong LNG inflows are reshaping Europe’s gas landscape. By late 2025, the United States had solidified its position as Europe’s leading LNG supplier, contributing over half of the continent’s imports. This influx has alleviated immediate supply concerns and is viewed by traders as a crucial buffer against low storage levels.
In light of these developments, commercial activities surrounding long-term LNG supply agreements are intensifying. Atlantic Sea LNG Trade is currently negotiating to secure up to 15 billion cubic meters (bcm) per year of U.S. LNG over two decades aimed at serving southern Europe. Established in 2025 through a partnership between Greece’s DEPA Commercial and Aktor Group, this initiative focuses on importing LNG via key terminals such as Revithoussa and Alexandroupolis while redistributing it throughout Southeast Europe and along the Vertical Gas Corridor.
The urgency of securing long-term supplies has been emphasized by company executives. CEO Alexandros Exarchou has warned that failure to secure U.S. LNG now could lead to significant market tightness post-2030 for nations that do not adequately balance their energy portfolios.
Atlantic Sea LNG Trade is actively engaging with multiple U.S. suppliers while also negotiating with potential buyers along the Vertical Gas Corridor, which includes countries such as Albania, North Macedonia, Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary, Moldova, Austria, and possibly Ukraine. The company’s internal analysis suggests varying demand profiles across regions—higher household consumption in northern markets versus stronger industrial demand in southern areas—prompting a strategy focused on diversifying its supply sources.
A recent milestone for Atlantic Sea LNG Trade includes its inaugural U.S. LNG agreement with Ukraine’s Naftogaz for a cargo scheduled for March 2026 delivery to Revithoussa, which will then be transported through Bulgaria and Romania. Further negotiations are anticipated to conclude during a high-level meeting in Washington on February 24, building on an earlier 20-year agreement with Venture Global signed in late 2025 that established Greece’s first long-term LNG partnership with a U.S. exporter and enhanced its role as a regional gas hub.
