In the first week of May, electricity prices surged across major European power markets, despite a decline in daily prices towards the week’s end. Weekly averages remained elevated compared to the beginning of the month, indicating a significant upward trend in pricing dynamics.
The Iberian markets saw the smallest price increases, with Portugal experiencing a rise of 4.9% and Spain 6.6%. Conversely, France witnessed an extraordinary price spike of 494%, marking a recovery from previously low levels. Other regions reported varied growth, with the United Kingdom seeing an increase of 13%, while Germany and the Nordic countries experienced rises of 82%.
During the week ending May 4, most European markets recorded average prices exceeding €100/MWh. Notable exceptions included Portugal and Spain, averaging €58.88/MWh and €59.76/MWh, respectively, while France averaged €73.95/MWh. Italy led with the highest average at €131.47/MWh, with other markets ranging from €100.68/MWh in the Nordics to €119.45/MWh in the UK.
<pOn a daily basis, Portugal recorded the week's lowest price at €19.57/MWh on May 10. Spain and France also experienced low prices on that day, below €25/MWh, at €20.84/MWh and €21.22/MWh, respectively. In contrast, other markets maintained prices above €65/MWh.
Sustained high-price conditions were evident in several markets, with Italy and the UK consistently exceeding €100/MWh. Germany, Belgium, and the Netherlands followed suit from Monday to Friday, while France and Nordic markets briefly surpassed this threshold during select trading sessions.
The peak daily price for the week was noted in Italy on May 6, reaching €146.46/MWh. On May 7, both Portugal and Spain marked their highest prices since mid-March at €86.48/MWh and €86.90/MWh, respectively, with the Nordic market also surging to €134.03/MWh, its highest since February.
The upward pressure on prices during this period can be attributed to several factors: rising CO₂ emission allowance prices, diminished wind energy output across various markets, and increased electricity demand. Additionally, solar generation saw a decline in Germany and Italy, exacerbating supply constraints. However, robust wind and solar production in the Iberian Peninsula helped mitigate price hikes in Spain and Portugal.
AleaSoft Energy Forecasting anticipates that electricity prices may decrease in the second week of May due to a projected recovery in wind generation across Europe and potential demand reductions in certain areas. Nevertheless, fluctuations in gas prices are expected to remain a significant factor influencing market behavior.
