In the second week of February, electricity prices across most major European markets exhibited a notable downward trend, reflecting a shift in supply dynamics and demand patterns. Weekly averages dropped significantly compared to the previous week, with the EPEX SPOT market in Germany being an exception, where prices increased by 1.9%. The Nordic countries’ Nord Pool market also saw a rise of 13%. In contrast, the most significant declines were recorded in France and the MIBEL market of Portugal and Spain, with reductions of 51% and 52% respectively.
Despite these decreases, weekly average prices in many markets remained above €90/MWh. Notably, Portugal recorded an average price of just €2.18/MWh, while Spain and France had averages of €6.24/MWh and €39.60/MWh respectively. The Nordic market led with the highest weekly average at €125.08/MWh, with other regions like Belgium and Italy averaging between €93.62/MWh and €116.21/MWh.
On a daily basis, both Spain and Portugal experienced several sessions where prices fell below €5/MWh. Portugal’s lowest daily price was recorded at €0.34/MWh on February 11, marking its lowest level since April 6, 2024. Similarly, Spain reached a low of €1.55/MWh on February 15, its lowest since April 17, 2024. France also saw daily prices drop below €20/MWh on multiple occasions, hitting €13.61/MWh on February 11.
Conversely, countries such as Germany, Belgium, Great Britain, Italy, and the Nordic markets experienced days where prices exceeded €100/MWh. During the first half of February, Italy and the Nordic region reported daily prices surpassing €120/MWh. The highest daily average was noted in the Nordic market at €158.53/MWh on February 10, the peak since December 23, 2022.
The price declines during this period were primarily attributed to falling gas and CO₂ allowance prices alongside increased solar energy production and reduced demand across various markets. Additionally, high hydroelectric output in the Iberian Peninsula contributed to lower prices, while enhanced wind energy generation in Spain, France, and Portugal further exerted downward pressure on costs.
Looking ahead to the third week of February, forecasts from AleaSoft Energy Forecasting suggest that electricity prices are likely to continue declining in most major European markets due to anticipated increases in wind and solar output particularly in Germany and Italy. However, it is expected that rising demand coupled with decreased wind generation in the Iberian Peninsula will lead to upward price pressures within the MIBEL market.
