In the second week of February, European energy markets witnessed a notable decline in key commodities, including Brent oil, TTF gas, and CO₂ emission allowance futures. The fluctuations in these markets reflect ongoing geopolitical tensions and changing demand forecasts that are influencing trading strategies and market sentiment across the region.
Brent oil futures on the ICE market remained below $70 per barrel throughout the week. The highest settlement price was recorded at $69.40 per barrel on February 11, while the lowest price dipped to $67.52 per barrel on February 12, marking a 2.7% decrease from the previous day. By February 13, prices slightly rebounded to $67.75 per barrel, yet this still represented a 0.4% decline compared to the prior Friday. The International Energy Agency (IEA) contributed to bearish sentiment by releasing a report that warned of a potential oversupply in 2026 and revised down oil demand forecasts.
Geopolitical factors, particularly tensions in the Middle East, initially supported Brent prices above $68.75 per barrel early in the week. However, easing supply concerns emerged following comments from the US president regarding ongoing negotiations with Iran, which suggested that discussions could extend for a month. This development added downward pressure to oil prices as market participants adjusted their expectations.
Meanwhile, TTF gas futures also exhibited stability below €34 per megawatt-hour (MWh). The week commenced with a peak at €33.50 per MWh on February 9, which was already 6.2% lower than the previous week’s closing price. The lowest point for TTF gas occurred on February 10 at €31.85 per MWh, with prices ultimately settling at €32.50 per MWh by February 13—an 8.9% decrease from the prior Friday’s close. The decline in gas futures was attributed to forecasts predicting milder temperatures and an increase in US liquefied natural gas (LNG) availability.
In addition to oil and gas markets, CO₂ emission allowance futures on the EEX market for December 2026 also saw significant declines. The maximum settlement price of €81.33 per tonne was reached on February 9; however, prices fell throughout the week, hitting a minimum of €70.70 per tonne by February 13—representing a substantial drop of 10% from the previous Friday and marking the lowest level since May 2025.
The developments across these energy markets underscore a complex interplay of factors affecting pricing and demand dynamics in Europe. As geopolitical uncertainties persist and weather patterns shift, stakeholders will need to remain vigilant in monitoring these trends to navigate the evolving landscape effectively.
