In the third week of May, European electricity markets saw strong volatility, with daily prices reaching their highest point on Monday, May 18, before easing toward the end of the week. Weekly averages increased across most markets despite the intra-week correction. The Spanish, Portuguese and Nordic markets were exceptions, with declines of 2.7%, 2.9% and 19%, respectively. France recorded the largest rise at 11%, while other increases ranged from 3.3% in Great Britain to 7.9% in Belgium.
Weekly averages above €75/MWh amid tight conditions
Across the week of May 18, most European markets posted average prices above €75/MWh, consistent with persistently tight system conditions across the region. Spain, Portugal and France were among the notable exceptions, with weekly averages of €48.48/MWh, €48.53/MWh and €48.94/MWh, respectively. At the higher end of the range, Italy and Great Britain recorded weekly averages of €116.31/MWh and €123.33/MWh. Other markets varied from €75.79/MWh in the Nordics to €105.42/MWh in Germany.
Daily price swings include sub-€30/MWh levels on May 24
Price dispersion was pronounced on a daily basis across Europe during the period. On Sunday, May 24, several markets including Spain, France, the Nordics and Portugal fell below €30/MWh. The Nordic market reached a weekly low of just €8.40/MWh, its weakest level since early April. In contrast, Germany, Great Britain, Italy and the Netherlands frequently traded above €100/MWh throughout the week.
The British market peaked on May 18 at €141.25/MWh. Germany, Belgium and the Netherlands also reached their highest daily levels since early April, with prices exceeding €130/MWh in each case.
Gas and wind factors drive weekly price pressure
The upward pressure on prices during the week was linked primarily to higher gas prices and weaker wind generation. Demand fluctuations provided additional support in selected markets during periods of variability. These drivers contributed to bullish sentiment in most European hubs even as intraday corrections occurred intermittently.
AleaSoft outlook for fourth week of May
AleaSoft Energy Forecasting indicated that prices could rise further in France, Spain, Italy and Portugal in the fourth week of May. The forecast cited lower wind output and higher demand conditions as supporting factors for those markets. By contrast, Germany may face downward pressure on prices due to weaker demand alongside stronger wind and solar generation.
AleaSoft also noted that evolving gas price trends are expected to remain a key driver for overall European electricity market dynamics .
