In the third week of May, European energy commodity markets recorded mixed and volatile price movements linked to shifting geopolitical expectations, supply outlooks, and seasonal demand conditions. Brent crude oil futures for the front-month contract on the ICE exchange reached a weekly peak of $112.10/bbl on Monday, May 18. Prices then declined steadily to a low of $102.58/bbl on Thursday, May 21.
A mild rebound followed on Friday, with Brent settling at $103.54/bbl. That close represented a 5.2% decline versus the previous week. The fall was associated with expectations of easing tensions in the Middle East, potential recovery in global supply, and improved diplomatic signals between the United States and Iran. Those developments reduced concerns about disruptions along key transport routes including the Strait of Hormuz.
Brent crude weekly range and drivers
Brent’s weekly trading pattern moved from an early high to a midweek low before ending higher than Thursday’s level. The contract’s peak at $112.10/bbl on May 18 was followed by a continuous drop through May 21. On May 22, the market reversed direction with a rebound that lifted the Friday close to $103.54/bbl.
The reported downward pressure reflected changing expectations around regional security and supply conditions. Improved diplomatic signals between Washington and Tehran were cited as reducing fears of disruptions affecting transport routes such as the Strait of Hormuz. Alongside that, expectations of potential recovery in global supply contributed to weaker pricing sentiment during the week.
TTF gas corrects after early strength
TTF natural gas futures in Europe also showed early-week strength followed by a corrective decline. Prices peaked on Tuesday, May 19 at €51.82/MWh, the highest level since early April. They then fell to a weekly low of €48.68/MWh on Friday, May 22.
The week ended with TTF down 3.0% compared with the previous Friday’s close. The decline was supported by reduced concerns over LNG supply disruptions. Weaker European gas demand tied to higher temperatures also eased upward pricing pressure during the second half of the week.
EEX carbon allowances hold a narrow range
EU carbon allowance futures for the December 2026 contract on the EEX market moved differently from oil and gas during the same period. Prices fluctuated within a narrow range, dipping to €74.95/t on Thursday, May 21. They then rebounded to a weekly high of €76.94/t on Friday, May 22.
The contract finished 1.7% higher than the previous week after that rebound. Despite short-term moves within the range, carbon prices were described as supported by underlying market expectations and structural emissions demand.
AleaSoft reported that overall price action across key benchmarks diverged during the week, with oil and gas easing alongside improving supply sentiment and weaker demand signals, while carbon markets maintained resilience with a modest upward bias.
