The energy landscape in Southeast Europe (SEE) is undergoing significant transformation, marked by a decline in coal capacity and a rise in renewable energy sources. However, a critical analysis reveals that this transition is not as straightforward as it appears. The region’s energy infrastructure, designed primarily for coal, is now favoring gas as the primary transitional technology. This phenomenon highlights the complexities of energy policy and infrastructure adaptation in SEE.
In many SEE countries, the exit from coal is occurring through asset substitution rather than a comprehensive redesign of the energy system. For instance, sites previously used for ash disposal are being converted into solar parks, while former coal substations are being repurposed into renewable energy hubs. Although these changes may seem progressive, they largely maintain the operational frameworks established during the coal era, characterized by centralized dispatch points and reliance on fast-ramping thermal resources.
A prominent example of this trend can be observed at Serbia’s Nikola Tesla A complex in Obrenovac. Here, land previously used for ash disposal is being prepared for extensive solar deployment. While this project aligns with decarbonization efforts and enhances asset efficiency, it does not alter the underlying system logic. The grid connections remain sized for thermal output, and the operational environment continues to depend on fast, controllable backup—primarily from gas.
Similarly, Bulgaria’s Maritsa East 3 site, once a coal-fired power station, has been transformed into one of the largest battery energy storage systems in the region, boasting a capacity of 202 MW / 500 MWh. This battery utilizes the existing grid connection from the coal plant, allowing immediate market participation without necessitating new transmission investments. While this approach optimizes gas usage by managing peak loads, it does not eliminate gas dependency; instead, it reinforces a thermal-centric design.
The legacy infrastructure designed for dispatchability poses challenges for integrating renewable technologies like solar and wind. These technologies are expected to work alongside controllable resources such as gas and nuclear power. However, nuclear power often lacks the flexibility needed for rapid ramping, while hydroelectric power is subject to weather variability. Consequently, gas emerges as the only technology that fits seamlessly within this inherited operational framework.
The persistence of gas in SEE’s energy mix is not merely coincidental; it stems from established grid codes, protection schemes, and market regulations that have evolved around thermal generation. As coal assets are repurposed without a fundamental redesign of these frameworks, gas becomes the default solution to fill the void left by retiring coal plants.
This transition also has broader implications beyond electricity generation. As maintenance schedules and reserve procurement strategies have been calibrated around fast thermal responses, removing coal creates a void that gas readily occupies. The financial landscape further complicates matters; existing coal assets represent sunk costs that can be more efficiently repurposed for solar or storage applications rather than investing in new infrastructure.
Ultimately, Southeast Europe’s energy transition reflects a complex interplay between legacy systems and emerging technologies. The shift from coal to renewables is mediated by an enduring reliance on gas, underscoring the need for a comprehensive redesign of system architecture that embraces decentralization and flexible energy solutions. Until such changes are implemented, gas will likely remain an entrenched component of the region’s energy strategy.
