The European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism is starting to influence Western Balkan electricity trade before the region has completed its shift away from coal. The mechanism is arriving as renewable investment accelerates, while exported power can still reflect the carbon characteristics of national grids. This transition is occurring alongside reported changes in cross-border electricity flows.
North Macedonia’s low-carbon pipeline and export target
North Macedonia is cited as the clearest example of how new generation plans intersect with export ambitions. Developers are advancing projects that could add 2.8 GW of low-carbon capacity, close to the country’s existing installed power capacity of roughly 3 GW. The pipeline includes Alcazar Energy’s 396 MW Štip wind project, a proposed 400 MW solar development by Akuo Energy, and a 414 MW wind project associated with WDP.
The stated aim is to move North Macedonia from a long-standing net importer to a net electricity exporter. The broader economic rationale is tied to trade exposure: approximately 77% of the country’s merchandise exports went to the EU in 2024. The source links affordable low-carbon electricity to industrial expansion, foreign investment attraction, and improved competitiveness for existing exporters.
Cross-border volumes and export revenue under CBAM pressure
CBAM is described as complicating the export model for low-carbon power. Western Balkan cross-border electricity volumes reportedly fell by 19% in the first six months of 2026. In parallel, North Macedonia earned €36.8 million from electricity exports in the first five months.
If annualised mechanically, those early figures would equate to approximately €88.3 million, or about 44.6% below the €159.3 million recorded in 2025. The reported decline is presented in the context of CBAM’s evolving impact on how exported electricity is treated.
Grid emission factors and evidence requirements for exports
A central issue is how electricity exports are handled through national grid emission factors. Even if a renewable plant produces low-carbon power physically, exported electricity may be associated with the average emissions intensity of a coal-heavy system. Renewable generation can reduce national averages, but lignite generation can still commercially penalise exported volumes.
This is framed as a bankability challenge for projects intended partly for EU-bound sales. A wind or solar developer cannot rely only on a conventional power-purchase agreement when targeting EU markets under CBAM-related scrutiny. Instead, credible evidence is needed linking generation, metering, scheduling, grid delivery, and the importing counterparty.
From guarantees of origin to installation-level data chains
The evidence architecture required for exports is described as more demanding than annual guarantees of origin. Exporters and industrial buyers need installation-level metering and time-correlated production and consumption data. It also requires transparent treatment of losses, validated contractual routes, and records showing that the same renewable attribute has not been allocated twice.
The source indicates that without these controls, low-carbon claims may not pass importer review or third-party verification. As a result, commercial value increasingly depends on the quality of emissions and origin data attached to each exported volume.
Regional trading implications across coal-heavy grids
The implications extend beyond North Macedonia to other Western Balkan systems with different generation mixes. Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Kosovo are described as retaining substantial coal generation. Montenegro has a lower-carbon mix but still faces periods when thermal output and imports affect grid intensity.
Albania is described as benefiting from hydropower while remaining exposed to hydrological variation and imported electricity. Across these markets, the interaction between local generation profiles and cross-border deliveries shapes how exported volumes may be characterised under CBAM-related requirements.
Two-track trading: market coupling versus documented low-carbon attributes
The source says electricity trading will separate into two products as CBAM-related documentation becomes more central. Conventional wholesale electricity would continue to be priced through market coupling, congestion, and hourly supply. Documented low-carbon electricity would carry additional value based on verified emissions characteristics and its usefulness to CBAM-exposed industrial buyers.
MWh accounting under CBAM-linked scrutiny is described as changing in practice: it is no longer defined only by where and when power was generated, but also by what can be proven about it . Metering, data governance, and contractual allocation are characterised as project infrastructure rather than optional documentation steps .
