In mid-March, the energy markets experienced notable volatility, particularly in Brent crude oil and natural gas prices, driven by geopolitical tensions and supply constraints. During the week of March 16 to March 20, Brent crude oil futures on the ICE market saw a significant price increase, with front-month settlement prices exceeding $100/bbl. The week began with prices dipping to $100.21/bbl, but by the close on March 20, they surged to a weekly high of $112.19/bbl, reflecting an 8.8% increase from the previous Friday and marking the highest level since July 2022.
The upward trend in oil prices persisted despite efforts to stabilize the market. An agreement from Iraq to export oil through the Turkish port of Ceyhan provided some temporary relief midweek; however, ongoing supply disruptions related to U.S.-Iran tensions and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz continued to exert upward pressure on Brent futures.
Simultaneously, TTF natural gas futures also displayed an upward trajectory during the same period. Prices started at a weekly low of €50.89/MWh on March 16, followed by a steady climb that peaked at €61.85/MWh on March 19—the highest level recorded since January 24, 2023. Although prices fell by 4.2% to €59.26/MWh by March 20, they still represented an impressive 18% increase compared to the prior week.
The rise in gas prices can be attributed primarily to geopolitical instability in the Middle East affecting supply chains and persistently low European gas storage levels, which are currently averaging below 30%, with several countries reporting levels below 25%.
<pMeanwhile, CO₂ emission allowance futures for December 2026 on the EEX market exhibited a downward trend for most of the week. Prices peaked at €69.02/t on March 16 before declining to a weekly low of €63.67/t on March 19—the lowest point since April 2025. By March 20, prices rebounded by 6.3%, closing at €67.68/t, although this was still 2.2% lower than the previous Friday’s close.
This week’s developments underscore a complex interplay of geopolitical factors, supply disruptions, and inventory levels that are shaping pricing dynamics across oil, gas, and carbon markets in Europe.
