Southeast European day-ahead electricity prices fell sharply on Tuesday. Stronger solar generation eased daytime supply, while weaker wind output, rising consumption and expensive gas kept evening prices elevated. The move followed a retreat in prices after Monday’s spike.
HUPX and regional corridor price moves
On Hungary’s HUPX, baseload dropped by €61.00/MWh to €189.96/MWh, reversing part of Monday’s increase. Romania traded almost level at €189.58/MWh. Slovenia and Croatia settled at €188.53/MWh and €188.59/MWh, respectively.
The close alignment indicated strong price coupling across the central regional corridor. Hungary’s premium to Germany narrowed to €9.89/MWh. Austria traded just €0.15/MWh below HUPX.
Lower prices further south in SEE
Prices were lower further south across the SEE markets. Serbia’s SEEPEX fell by €16.70/MWh to €182.72/MWh, a €7.25/MWh discount to Hungary. Montenegro settled at €178.44/MWh, Bulgaria at €176.06/MWh and Greece at a regional low of €170.25/MWh.
Albania remained the most expensive SEE market at €204.00/MWh. North Macedonia was the only market to rise, increasing by €5.60/MWh to €185.21/MWh.
Italy premium and intraday solar-driven profile
Italy’s national price reached €223.68/MWh, keeping a premium of almost €34/MWh over Hungary and more than €41/MWh over Serbia. The spread supported average SEE exports of 759 MW towards Italy.
Regional solar output was forecast to increase by 655 MW to 6,250 MW, pushing afternoon prices lower across the region. HUPX fell to a daily minimum of €61.10/MWh in hour 15, with similar lows in Romania, Croatia and Slovenia.
Prices rebounded when solar generation declined during the evening hours . Hungary and Romania climbed above €305/MWh in hour 20, while Serbia reached €315.10/MWh and Albania peaked at €337/MWh.
Peakload spreads and implications for flexibility
The widening gap between afternoon and evening prices pushed Hungarian peakload down to €164.90/MWh, below its €215.10/MWh off-peak contract . Serbia showed a similar pattern, with peakload at €174.70/MWh and off-peak power at €190.80/MWh.
The resulting price profile supported the commercial case for batteries, demand response and flexible thermal or hydropower capacity able to shift output into the evening ramp .
Regional balance, imports and wind outlook
Combined Hungary and SEE consumption was forecast to rise by 1,006 MW to 29,983 MW, while generation slipped to 28,810 MW . The region moved from net exports of 140 MW on Monday to net imports of 1,173 MW.
Imports from Austria and Slovakia into Hungary and Slovenia averaged 1,699 MW . Regional wind output was forecast to fall by 512 MW to 1,798 MW, leaving higher solar generation unable to cover the evening deficit.
Bulgaria remained the largest exporter at 1,165 MW, down sharply from Monday’s 2,092 MW . Bosnia and Herzegovina increased exports to 434 MW, while Serbia imported 715 MW and Croatia imported 468 MW.
Forward pricing and gas-carbon cost signals
Forward prices stayed firm despite the spot correction . Hungarian October baseload rose by €9/MWh to €205/MWh, creating a €32.50/MWh premium to Germany; week 39 increased to €191.50/MWh and week 40 advanced to €198/MWh.
Austrian CEGH gas gained €2.80/MWh to €84.74/MWh . EU carbon allowances rose by €2.50 to €87.99 per tonne, maintaining pressure on thermal generation costs.
The spot decline removed much of Monday’s exceptional scarcity premium, but the underlying balance remained tight . The region required stronger central European imports even as higher Italian prices pulled electricity westward.
For traders, the key signal was the widening intraday spread rather than the daily average: cheaper solar-heavy afternoons followed by another sharp evening climb . With Hungarian October power still priced at €205/MWh, the forward market indicated that Tuesday’s relief may prove temporary.
