SEEPEX activity on Sunday showed lower day-ahead pricing alongside strong photovoltaic output. Weekend demand combined with solar generation pushed prices down for Sunday delivery, followed by a rebound the next day.
On Sunday, SEEPEX cleared at €72.62/MWh for baseload and €37.61/MWh for peak hours, with traded volume of 14,547.4 MWh. Regional pricing stayed broadly aligned, with Romania, Bulgaria and Greece averaging close to €80/MWh, Hungary around €81/MWh, Croatia at €82.27/MWh and Slovenia near €84/MWh.
Intraday price range expands as solar output peaks
Daily averages did not reflect the intraday pattern seen across Bulgaria, Greece, Hungary, Romania, Croatia and Slovenia. Prices fell close to €0/MWh between 10:00 and 15:00 as solar generation peaked, then rose toward €145/MWh during evening hours when photovoltaic output declined and demand stayed elevated.
The difference between the low-price midday period and the evening level approached €145/MWh. The spread pointed to increased value for assets able to shift electricity across time, including battery storage, flexible hydro, thermal capacity and cross-border transmission availability.
The market structure described in the report also moved away from traditional baseload economics. Assets capable of absorbing excess renewable production during low-price periods and supplying power during high-demand hours were identified as becoming more valuable.
Serbia trades at discount; weekend weakness reverses on Monday
Serbia’s pricing was reported at a discount versus neighbouring EU-coupled markets, with SEEPEX prices around €7–11/MWh lower. The lower level was attributed to strong domestic supply conditions and a regional solar-driven surplus during the low-demand Sunday session.
Complete harmonised physical-flow data from all regional transmission operators was not available at the reporting deadline, limiting bilateral flow analysis. For Monday delivery, SEEPEX published a baseload price of €97.53/MWh, up almost 34% from Sunday.
Peak prices for Monday delivery rose to €78.83/MWh, while traded volume increased to 15,746.3 MWh. The report said the weekend decline was mainly linked to calendar effects and renewable output patterns rather than weaker Serbian fundamentals.
Renewables economics tied to zero-price periods and flexibility needs
The price curve was described as raising concerns for renewable developers using annual average electricity prices for profitability assumptions. Merchant solar projects were noted as needing to account for zero-price periods, curtailment risk, imbalance exposure and declining midday capture prices.
Batteries were described as potentially benefiting from larger spreads, while commercial outcomes depend on cycling limits and degradation management. The report also cited balancing-market participation and revenue opportunities across multiple market segments.
Gas market developments; LNG flows support regional supply options
European gas prices ended the week at €48.80/MWh on 10 July, down 2.91% on the day but about 37% higher year on year. Earlier in the week, gas prices rose by more than 12% amid renewed geopolitical concerns tied to US-Iran tensions and potential risks to LNG flows through the Strait of Hormuz.
Brent crude closed at $76.01 per barrel, down slightly on Friday but still about 5.5% higher over the week. Even with LNG vessels continuing to pass through Hormuz, reduced shipping activity maintained a geopolitical risk premium affecting fuel-price volatility for gas-fired generation in markets such as Greece and Romania.
LNG role in Greece expands through Revithoussa and Alexandroupoli FSRU
Total Greek gas consumption reached 43.09 TWh in the first half of 2026, up 15.06% year on year, while exports nearly tripled to 8.72 TWh from 2.86 TWh. Domestic demand remained relatively stable at 34.37 TWh.
The Revithoussa LNG terminal supplied 18.61 TWh, representing around 43% of incoming gas volumes. Flows through the Alexandroupoli FSRU increased more than threefold to 3.46 TWh, supporting neighbouring markets including Bulgaria and countries further north.
Bulgaria’s Vertical Gas Corridor moves toward capacity auctions
Bulgaria’s role in regional energy security is expected to strengthen as projects under the Vertical Gas Corridor approach completion. Bulgartransgaz expects key network sections to be ready by 1 October 2026, after which additional capacity will be offered via annual auctions.
Around 80% of the 48 km Kulata–Kresna pipeline section has already been welded and installed. A planned Rupcha–Vetrino expansion is intended to increase northbound transmission capacity along a wider route connecting Greece, Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary, Slovakia, Moldova and Ukraine.
