As Serbia navigates its energy transition, it faces a significant challenge in meeting the green electricity demands of its CBAM-exposed exporters. The country has identified an annual gap of between 0.4 TWh and 1.4 TWh that must be addressed through the development of new renewable energy projects, specifically those that can provide traceable renewable attributes, such as Guarantees of Origin (GOs). This gap arises from the existing residual-mix disclosure for 2024, which reveals a heavy reliance on brown coal and lignite, comprising 66.60% of Serbia’s energy mix, while renewable sources like hydropower, wind, and solar contribute only marginally.
The challenge lies in translating this gap into actionable projects. To effectively close the deficit, Serbia must consider the annual energy yield per installed megawatt, which varies based on the capacity factors for different renewable technologies. For instance, conservative estimates indicate that onshore wind can yield approximately 2.63 to 3.07 GWh per MW per year, while utility-scale solar is estimated at about 1.31 to 1.58 GWh per MW annually. This means that to meet the lower end of the gap using wind alone would require an additional capacity of roughly 130 to 152 MW, whereas addressing the upper end would necessitate around 456 to 532 MW.
In contrast, relying solely on solar power to close this gap presents a more significant challenge due to its lower annual yield per MW. For example, closing a deficit of 400 GWh annually would require approximately 253 to 305 MW of solar capacity, while addressing a gap of 1.4 TWh would demand around 886 to 1,069 MW. This disparity highlights the complexities involved in project planning and execution for solar installations, as it increases the number of required projects and associated logistical challenges.
To optimize resource allocation and mitigate risks, a blended approach combining both wind and solar resources is likely necessary. A strategic planning split targeting approximately 60% of annual gap energy from wind and 40% from solar could serve as a practical framework for Serbia’s energy strategy. Under this model, closing a 0.4 TWh gap would involve procuring around 240 GWh from wind and 160 GWh from solar, translating into about 78 to 91 MW of wind capacity and approximately 101 to 122 MW of solar capacity.
At the high end of the spectrum, applying this same split to a gap of 1.4 TWh would require about 274 to 319 MW from wind and approximately 354 to 427 MW from solar. This translates into two wind parks of about 150 MW each combined with four solar parks of around 100 MW each. Such targeted project development is crucial for ensuring that generated renewable energy is earmarked for exporters under Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs), thus providing them with a defensible supply chain.
Financially, the capital expenditure (CAPEX) required for these projects varies significantly based on site conditions and other factors. For utility-scale solar projects in Serbia, CAPEX is estimated between €0.55 million and €0.85 million per MW; for onshore wind projects, it ranges from €1.10 million to €1.55 million per MW. Consequently, constructing a single wind park could cost between €165 million and €233 million, while three solar parks might range from €165 million to €255 million collectively.
As Serbia moves forward with its energy transition strategy, connection priorities will play a critical role in addressing both the quantity and deliverability of renewable energy resources. The BeoGrid 2025 reinforcement program aims to enhance transmission capabilities within key demand centers such as Belgrade and Srem, ensuring that renewable MWh can be reliably delivered without incurring excessive curtailment or congestion costs.
Moreover, diversifying solar deployment across various locations will help mitigate risks associated with over-reliance on specific corridors while enhancing overall grid resilience. Ultimately, Serbia’s ability to close its green electricity gap hinges not only on increasing generation capacity but also on establishing robust institutional frameworks that ensure GOs are allocated specifically for exporter use.
In conclusion, Serbia’s path toward achieving its renewable energy targets requires a focused approach that balances project development across multiple technologies while ensuring that generated attributes are effectively allocated to meet exporter needs. By strategically addressing these challenges now, Serbia can enhance its competitiveness in international markets while advancing its broader decarbonization goals.
