SEEPEX day-ahead prices increased sharply on 13 July, with the baseload average rising to €97.53/MWh. That level was up 34.3% from Sunday’s €72.62/MWh. The peak-load average reached €78.83/MWh, while traded day-ahead volume totalled 15,746.3 MWh. Average Serbian electricity demand was indicated at approximately 3,395 MW, compared with 3,188 MW on Sunday.
Hourly profile shows deeper intraday movement than baseload averages
The SEEPEX hourly price pattern was described as more significant than the baseload average. Prices fell to €29/MWh at 09:00 and then stayed around €50–52/MWh through much of the central solar generation window. The market saw a sharp climb later in the day, with prices reaching €129.95/MWh at 17:00. Further increases took the level to €174/MWh at 19:00, before a daily maximum of €189.84/MWh at 20:00.
The minimum-to-maximum spread across the published profile was approximately €160.84/MWh. Using only half of that theoretical range would imply a gross daily arbitrage envelope of roughly €80/MWh. This figure is stated before accounting for round-trip efficiency losses, degradation, market fees, balancing exposure and dispatch constraints.
Serbia trades below neighbouring markets while evening prices rise
Serbia was reported as substantially cheaper than the coupled Central European markets during the period assessed. The SEEPEX baseload average was approximately €28.37/MWh below Hungary, €28.48/MWh below Slovenia, €22.19/MWh below Croatia, and €16.93/MWh below Romania. The published differential indicates Serbia was not the regional marginal price-setting zone for most of the day. Evening prices nonetheless approached levels typically associated with gas-fired generation, imports and constrained flexible capacity.
No negative-price interval appeared in the published SEEPEX hourly profile. However, the morning low of €29/MWh is cited as confirming that solar cannibalisation is not limited to weekends or exceptionally weak-demand days. Unshaped Serbian solar PPAs were described as remaining exposed to lower capture prices than baseload contracts. Wind projects were noted as having a materially different generation profile.
Day-ahead curve remains key signal; intraday drivers highlighted
A consistent market-wide intraday volume-weighted price was not publicly available at the morning cut-off. As a result, the day-ahead curve was presented as the clearest executable market signal for timing trades. Intraday volatility was expected to be concentrated around afternoon cloud cover and temperature forecasts, along with wind generation deviations. The steep net-load ramp between 17:00 and 21:00 was also identified as a key driver.
