Serbia’s wholesale electricity price fell almost 25% for Saturday delivery as weekend demand eased, while Romania, Bulgaria and Montenegro stayed above €230/MWh. The move highlighted a widening divide between Western Balkan markets and countries dealing with reduced nuclear generation. Serbia’s day-ahead benchmark on SEEPEX dropped €58.94/MWh to €181.02/MWh, reversing much of Friday’s sharp increase.
Romania’s OPCOM price declined by €21.32/MWh to €233.88/MWh. Bulgaria remained near €233.40/MWh, and Montenegro increased to €232.04/MWh. North Macedonia fell to €192.91/MWh, while Slovenia averaged around €203.22/MWh.
The gap between Serbia and Romania widened to almost €53/MWh, even though both markets benefited from lower weekend consumption. The divergence was linked to supply constraints rather than demand alone. Romania continues to operate without output from its two Cernavodă nuclear reactors, removing approximately 1.36 GW of firm generation.
Nuclear and maintenance constraints affect dispatchable supply
In Bulgaria, Kozloduy unit 6, rated at about 1 GW, entered scheduled maintenance on October 8. Unit 5 remains exposed to low Danube water levels. These constraints reduced dispatchable generation at a time when hydro availability and wind output have been unreliable.
Price spreads also reflected the regional pattern of hourly volatility. Romanian day-ahead prices ranged from around €138/MWh to €342/MWh, indicating that reduced midday import needs did not remove evening scarcity. Serbia recorded a similarly wide hourly range from approximately €132/MWh to €300/MWh.
Bulgaria and Montenegro reached around €336/MWh and €330/MWh, respectively. These movements supported the need for flexible resources such as batteries, pumped hydro and other dispatchable capacity during periods when weekend demand lowers average prices. Solar contributed to midday balancing in Romania, while scarcity persisted later in the day.
Solar reduces midday imports, but evening prices remain wide
Romanian operational data showed consumption falling to approximately 4.14 GW around midday, with domestic generation reaching 3.73 GW. Solar output contributed roughly 2.05 GW, reducing net imports to about 405 MW. Earlier in the morning, before photovoltaic production increased, Romanian imports had exceeded 1.5 GW.
The shift demonstrated how solar generation affected Romania’s daily electricity balance. It also showed limitations in preventing tight conditions later in the day when prices remained elevated despite lower midday import requirements. Serbia’s hourly range similarly reflected periods of lower and higher pricing within the same session.
Tighter cross-border flows keep Turkey cheaper than Bulgaria
Turkey’s day-ahead electricity averaged approximately €56/MWh, leaving it around €177/MWh below Bulgaria. The disparity pointed to limits in existing cross-border transmission capacity that restrict arbitrage between markets with different price levels. Additional low-cost electricity is available close to Southeast Europe, but restricted transfer capability prevented the price difference from being eliminated.
Italy remained near €220/MWh, while Austria increased to about €207/MWh. These levels provided limited relief for the more expensive eastern SEE markets where nuclear-related supply constraints were present. For market participants, the session reinforced the role of country-specific hedging rather than relying only on wider European benchmarks.
A supplier hedged against Serbian or German power prices could still face procurement exposure in Romania or Bulgaria when transmission constraints prevent price convergence. For lenders, the same conditions increased the value of projects offering dispatchable capacity, storage and secure grid access. Saturday’s correction showed that lower demand can quickly reduce prices where supply is adequate, while Romania and Bulgaria remained exposed to reduced firm generation that neighbouring markets cannot fully replace.
