Electricity prices across southeastern Europe increased sharply for Monday, October 12, following a rebound in demand after the weekend and a drop in forecast wind generation. The move lifted Serbian prices above €230/MWh and pushed Hungary, Romania and Bulgaria towards €235/MWh. The higher level raised procurement costs for suppliers and industrial buyers.
Forward pricing indicated expectations for expensive electricity to continue beyond Monday. Hungary’s week 42 contract settled at €244.50/MWh, with week 43 close behind at €244/MWh. The day-ahead market changes were reflected in regional benchmarks.
Spot and contract benchmarks across Serbia, Montenegro, Bulgaria, Romania and Hungary
Serbia’s SEEPEX day-ahead average rose by €45.20/MWh to €230.76/MWh. That left Serbia just €4.12/MWh below Hungary. Montenegro’s BELEN increased by €43.10/MWh to €208.46/MWh, keeping a wider discount of €26.42/MWh versus the Hungarian benchmark.
Bulgaria’s IBEX recorded the highest regional average at €235.50/MWh, up €60.30/MWh. Romania’s OPCOM followed at €235.29/MWh, an increase of €59.20/MWh. Hungary’s HUPX rose by €48.80/MWh to €234.88/MWh.
The three markets were separated by less than €1/MWh, limiting scope for trading margins based only on daily average differences. Hourly spreads and transmission availability would affect whether cross-border transactions remained attractive.
Regional price moves beyond the main benchmark exchanges
Croatia reached €226.98/MWh, while Slovenia rose to €224.94/MWh, with both markets up by €53.30/MWh. Greece gained €58.90/MWh to reach €218.04/MWh. Albania increased to €222.35/MWh.
North Macedonia remained the lowest-priced market in the regional comparison at €198.47/MWh, up by €7.60/MWh. Across these markets, Monday’s increases were not limited to the core SEE exchanges mentioned earlier.
Demand recovery and wind decline shift the supply-demand balance
The supply-demand outlook changed through both higher consumption and lower wind output forecasts. Forecast average demand across Hungary and SEE coverage rose by 3,605 MW to 30,588 MW, about 13.4% above Sunday. Forecast wind generation fell by 2,358 MW to 1,397 MW, a decline of nearly 63%.
[Solar output was expected to rise by 1,219 MW to 4,379 MW.] Solar generation was projected to cushion part of the wind decline, but combined wind and solar output still fell by about 1,139 MW compared with Sunday. With demand higher over the same period, that implied approximately 4,744 MW more supply would need to come from other generation or imports if forecasts materialised.
Imports, Germany reference prices and forward spreads for Hungary
Regional net imports increased by only 300 MW to 3,719 MW. Imports via monitored Austria–Slovakia routes into Hungary and Slovenia rose by 395 MW to 3,140 MW. The figures indicated that additional imports alone were insufficient to cover the change in demand and renewable availability.
The price increase extended beyond SEE as well as within it. Germany’s day-ahead average jumped by €74.90/MWh to €197.23/MWh, exceeding Hungary’s daily rise; as a result Hungary’s premium over Germany narrowed by €26.10/MWh to €37.65/MWh even as Hungarian electricity became more expensive.
The narrowing was reflected in forward spreads too: Hungary’s week 42 spread over Germany widened to €75.50/MWh while week 43 reached €70/MWh. Hungarian November power rose €4.50/MWh to €231.50/MWh.
Gas and carbon costs alongside regional exposure for Serbian buyers
Austrian CEGH gas stood at €80.80/MWh, while November gas increased €2.50/MWh to €83/MWh. Carbon allowances were unchanged at €86.94 per tonne.
[For Serbian buyers] immediate exposure was electricity priced close to Hungary, Romania and Bulgaria, while Montenegro retained a meaningful discount despite its daily increase on Monday.
