Brent crude oil futures for the front month on the ICE market increased sharply during the third week of July, reaching the highest level since 12 June. The move came as geopolitical tensions intensified and concerns over potential energy supply disruptions increased. Over the week, the contract traded from a weekly low of $83.30/bbl on Monday, 13 July. It then climbed to a weekly settlement high of $88.10/bbl on Friday, 17 July.
The Friday settlement was 16% higher than the previous Friday’s level, according to data analysed by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting. This reflected an increase in the risk premium embedded in crude oil prices. The rally was linked to escalating hostilities between the United States and Iran. It also coincided with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, described as a critical route for global energy shipments.
TTF front-month natural gas follows higher trajectory
TTF front-month natural gas futures on ICE moved higher during the third week of July. The contract settled at a weekly low of €51.36/MWh on Monday, 13 July. It rose in each subsequent trading session before reaching a weekly settlement high on Friday. That high was €57.44/MWh on 17 July.
The €57.44/MWh settlement was the highest level since 21 March. It was also 18% above the previous Friday’s level, according to data analysed by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting. Concerns over LNG supply from the Persian Gulf, alongside escalating United States-Iran tensions, were cited as the main upward catalyst for European natural gas prices during the week.
EEX December 2026 carbon allowance futures swing during the week
EU carbon allowance futures for the December 2026 reference contract on the EEX showed significant volatility during the same period. Prices reached a weekly settlement high of €81.39/t on Tuesday, 14 July. They then retreated during the final sessions of the week. The contract ended at a weekly settlement low of €79.12/t on Friday, 17 July.
Despite falling from the weekly high, the Friday settlement remained only 0.1% below the previous Friday’s level, according to data analysed by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting.
