Day-ahead electricity prices across Southeast Europe and Hungary experienced a notable uptick on Thursday, reversing the previous day’s downward trend in parts of the southern region. Hungary has once again established itself as the regional price leader, driven by strong demand during evening hours.
The HUPX day-ahead baseload price in Hungary surged to €123.77/MWh, reflecting an increase of €20.6/MWh from the previous day, marking the highest price in the region and solidifying Hungary’s position as a key pricing hub. Other regional prices were more clustered, with Romania and Bulgaria both at €103.02/MWh, Serbia at €101.45/MWh, Greece at €101.23/MWh, and Albania at €99.78/MWh. Slovenia reported a price of €116.39/MWh while Croatia’s price was €112.10/MWh; Montenegro remained the lowest at €92.79/MWh.
This price increase occurred despite only a slight rise in overall regional demand, which is projected at 34,847 MW—marginally above Wednesday’s figures. The rebound in prices appears to be more closely linked to shifts in the generation mix and ongoing reliance on imports during peak hours.
Wind generation emerged as the primary contributor to increased supply, climbing significantly to 5,244 MW—an increase of 1,590 MW compared to the previous day—thus raising total generation to 36,010 MW. This gain was somewhat offset by declines in other generation sources: gas-fired output fell to 5,208 MW, solar energy dropped to 3,161 MW, and hydroelectric generation decreased to 7,304 MW.
<pDespite a stronger contribution from renewable sources, the region continues to exhibit a structural dependence on imports, with net imports deepening to -2,067 MW from -1,255 MW the day before. This suggests that while wind energy has improved supply conditions, it has not fully replaced the need for external electricity flows.
Hungary’s price premium over Germany has narrowed but remains positive; the HU-DE spread tightened to €10/MWh from €14.2/MWh on Wednesday. This dynamic continues to facilitate electricity flows from west to east. However, imports from the CORE region saw a significant decline to 200 MW from 1,350 MW a day earlier, indicating a potential shift in cross-border balancing rather than an overall reduction in import requirements.
Hourly pricing patterns across the region highlight the critical role of evening demand peaks. Most markets recorded their highest prices around hour 20 due to typical post-solar ramp dynamics. In Serbia, SEEPEX prices fluctuated between a low of €35/MWh and a high of €175/MWh; Hungary exhibited greater volatility with prices ranging from €4.7/MWh to €254.1/MWh.
Forward markets indicate continued support for elevated pricing structures. Hungarian weekly and monthly contracts are pricing higher levels: Week 13 at €116.5/MWh, Week 14 at €99.5/MWh, and April-26 at €101/MWh; the Cal-26 contract is set at €110.5/MWh. Positive forward spreads against Germany further suggest expectations of ongoing regional tightness.
<pOn the fuel front, market movements remained relatively stable; CEGH gas prices increased slightly to €54.38/MWh while EU carbon allowances dipped marginally to €65.87/t, exerting limited influence on electricity pricing.
Structural developments across the region indicate a growing need for flexibility in energy supply. Hungary is enhancing its battery storage capabilities with Alteo’s addition of a new 10 MW unit—bringing its total installed capacity to 80 MW—while Romania is advancing plans for new thermal capacity with multiple bids for a 275 MW cogeneration plant. In Bulgaria, discussions regarding EU ETS participation reflect ongoing tensions between decarbonization goals and industrial competitiveness.
The overall market landscape suggests a controlled firmness rather than outright scarcity. Increased wind output has bolstered supply conditions; however, persistent dependence on imports and significant evening demand ramps continue to maintain elevated price levels. Hungary’s status as the marginal price setter remains firm as neighboring SEE markets closely follow its pricing trends during peak periods.
