Week 27 brought a split in electricity pricing between Southeast Europe and Northwest Europe. In the monitored SEE markets, prices rose while Northwest Europe moved lower on cooler weather and stronger wind generation. The divergence pointed to different drivers across the two regions, with regional fundamentals shaping market outcomes.
Price movements across monitored Southeast European markets
Romania recorded the highest average price among the monitored SEE markets at EUR 164.31/MWh. Hungary followed at EUR 162.04/MWh. Croatia averaged EUR 142.57/MWh, Serbia EUR 139.93/MWh, Italy EUR 134.85/MWh, Bulgaria EUR 114.61/MWh and Greece EUR 112.81/MWh.
Türkiye remained the lowest-priced monitored market at EUR 47.36/MWh. The country also posted a sharp percentage increase from a low base during the week.
Northwest Europe declines after cooler conditions and wind strength
Northwest Europe moved in the opposite direction to SEE during the week. France saw the steepest weekly decline, with prices falling 32.1% to EUR 78.60/MWh. Spain and Portugal dropped by approximately 27.7% to around EUR 63.20/MWh.
Germany, Belgium, Switzerland, Slovakia, Poland, the Netherlands, Austria and the Czech Republic also recorded significant weekly declines. The pattern reflected cooler weather after the late-June heat wave alongside stronger wind generation.
Demand, renewables and hydropower shift the supply-demand balance in SEE
SEE faced rising demand alongside weaker renewable and hydropower output, tightening the regional supply-demand balance. Electricity demand increased 2.1% to 18.80 TWh during the week. Variable renewable generation declined 3.3%, with wind output down 5.1% and solar generation down 1.8%.
Hydropower output fell 3.4%, reducing non-thermal supply available to meet load. Thermal generation rose by 6.5%, reflecting greater reliance on dispatchable capacity during the week.
Cross-border flows reinforce tightening in Southeast Europe
The increase in cross-border flows supported the tightening trend in SEE markets. Net imports rose 28.2% to 1.25 TWh. Hungary, Romania and Serbia all increased their import requirements during the week.
Greece, Bulgaria and Türkiye remained net exporters over the period, although their export balances narrowed compared with earlier levels.
Gas prices and import dependence shape regional risk premium dynamics
Tightness in thermal-reliant systems also aligned with firmer gas pricing for the week. TTF futures averaged EUR 43.59/MWh, up 5.5% week on week, and moved above EUR 45/MWh by the end of the week.
As SEE becomes more dependent on thermal generation, higher gas prices can support peak power prices and contribute to a wider regional risk premium.
Sensitivity to weather, renewables performance and thermal availability
The direction of prices could continue if hot weather persists across SEE while wind generation remains weak and hydropower output stays subdued. Under that scenario, gas prices would remain firm and import requirements would increase in Hungary, Romania and Serbia.
The signal could weaken if cooler weather reaches SEE, wind generation recovers and hydropower improves while gas prices decline or thermal availability in Serbia normalizes.
Key indicators for assessing changes in regional pricing
The market is increasingly trading as a distinct power-market risk zone rather than tracking broader European moves alone. Demand levels, wind output, hydropower performance, thermal generation availability, gas prices and cross-border imports were identified as the main indicators for whether a regional risk premium widens or begins to fade.
