Southeast Europe’s power balance tightened in Week 27, following higher electricity demand, weaker renewable and hydropower output, increased thermal generation, and higher reliance on imports across the region. The week’s market conditions were reflected in changes to generation volumes and regional price levels.
Demand up while wind and hydropower output fell
SEE electricity demand rose 2.1% in Week 27, moving from 18.41 TWh to 18.80 TWh. Türkiye recorded the largest absolute increase, while Greece and Romania also posted strong growth. Variable renewable generation declined 3.3%, with wind output down 5.1% and solar generation lower by 1.8%. Hydropower generation fell 3.4%, tightening the regional supply balance further.
Thermal generation increased as supply tightened
The system responded with higher thermal output across the region. Regional thermal generation rose 6.5%, from 6.44 TWh to 6.86 TWh. Lignite and coal generation increased by 11.6%, while gas-fired output rose 3.3%.
These changes point to a need for dispatchable and flexible capacity during periods when wind, solar and hydro underperform relative to demand.
Weekly power prices rise in Romania and Hungary
Price signals were strongest in Romania and Hungary, where average weekly prices reached EUR 164.31/MWh and EUR 162.04/MWh, respectively. Croatia averaged EUR 142.57/MWh, while Serbia recorded a 26.3% week-on-week increase to EUR 139.93/MWh. The price levels supported revenue potential for assets exposed to peak-hour pricing, ancillary services and structured merchant revenues.
Bankability focus shifts toward hybrid revenue structures
For project finance, bankability remained a central consideration in the context of volatile power markets. Pure merchant exposure can remain challenging under such conditions, according to the Week 27 data discussed for financing structures. Hybrid approaches combine partial merchant exposure with corporate PPAs, tolling agreements, balancing contracts, capacity-style revenues and hedged revenue floors.
Storage, pumped hydro and grid flexibility highlighted
Energy storage and pumped hydro were identified as among the clearest potential beneficiaries of the Week 27 market environment. The tightening signal was concentrated in evening hours when solar generation declines while demand remains elevated. Assets able to shift electricity into the 19:00–22:00 period could access higher-value price intervals while supporting system stability.
The investment case also extended to grid-supporting infrastructure as import needs rose across SEE.
Imports increase and interconnector demand strengthens
SEE net imports increased by 28.2% to 1.25 TWh in Week 27. Hungary, Romania and Serbia recorded higher import requirements compared with the prior week. Higher dependence on imports in high-price markets supported the case for new interconnectors, grid reinforcement and balancing infrastructure aimed at improving regional flexibility.
Gas prices move higher alongside TTF futures
Gas market conditions provided an additional financing signal during the same period. TTF futures averaged EUR 43.59/MWh, up 5.5% week on week, and moved above EUR 45/MWh by the end of the week. Higher gas prices increase the relative value of non-gas flexibility, including battery storage and demand-side response, when gas-fired generation sets marginal prices.
Financing view: SEE power-market volatility was described as increasingly investable, with the strongest bankability case associated with flexible assets carrying contracted or partially hedged revenue streams.
Potential beneficiaries: storage, pumped hydro, grid flexibility and structured renewable projects were expected to feature more prominently on lenders’, utilities’ and infrastructure investors’ agendas as regional flexibility needs continue to grow.
