Power markets in Southeast Europe tightened in Week 27, while northwest Europe moved in the opposite direction, creating a regional split. The divergence was linked to higher electricity demand, weaker wind, solar and hydropower output, increased thermal generation and greater reliance on cross-border imports across several SEE markets.
Demand growth and weaker variable renewables
Electricity demand in SEE increased 2.1% week on week to 18.80 TWh, from 18.41 TWh. Türkiye recorded the largest absolute rise, with demand up by 448 GWh to 7.73 TWh. Greece lifted demand by 8.0%, while Romania and Croatia added 7.3% and 2.9%, respectively.
The demand increase coincided with lower variable renewable output. Regional wind and solar generation fell 3.3% to 4.15 TWh, with wind down 5.1% and solar down 1.8%. Türkiye saw the sharpest decline, as variable renewables dropped 22.0%, while Greece also recorded a decrease as weaker wind outweighed higher solar output.
Hydropower decline and higher thermal output
Hydropower generation weakened across the region during the week. SEE hydro output fell 3.4%, dropping from 3.53 TWh to 3.41 TWh. The largest reductions were recorded in Bulgaria, with declines also reported in Italy, Romania, Hungary and Serbia.
Croatia and Greece registered increases in hydropower production, but they were not sufficient to offset the broader regional decline. The tighter supply-demand balance was partly supported by higher thermal generation, with SEE thermal output rising 6.5% from 6.44 TWh to 6.86 TWh. Lignite and coal generation increased by 11.6%, while gas-fired production rose 3.3%.
Regional price moves and cross-border flows
The shift in fundamentals was reflected in electricity prices across SEE markets. Romania recorded the highest average price at EUR 164.31/MWh, followed by Hungary at EUR 162.04/MWh. Croatia averaged EUR 142.57/MWh, Serbia EUR 139.93/MWh, Italy EUR 134.85/MWh, Bulgaria EUR 114.61/MWh, and Greece EUR 112.81/MWh.
Türkiye remained the cheapest monitored SEE market at EUR 47.36/MWh, despite recording a sharp percentage increase from the previous week.
Northeast Europe moved in the opposite direction, with weekly price declines reported for France, Iberia, Germany, Belgium, Switzerland, Slovakia, Poland, the Netherlands and Austria. Cooler weather following the late-June heat wave and stronger wind generation supported those declines.
Imports rise as gas prices firm
The cross-border flow data also pointed to a regional split. Net imports into SEE increased by 28.2% to 1.25 TWh. Hungary’s imports rose by 157.9% to 202 GWh, while Romania’s net imports increased by 44.8% to 194 GWh.
