SEE peak power prices supported amid weak wind, lower hydro and firmer gas

July 18, 2026

Supported by

Southeast European peak power prices are likely to stay supported in the near term unless wind and hydropower output recover, gas prices decline or import pressure eases in the region’s premium markets. The week-ahead picture follows a tightening pattern seen in Week 27. Electricity demand rose, while renewable and hydropower generation weakened. Thermal output increased and regional net imports climbed.

Week 27 price anchor markets

Romania and Hungary remained the region’s premium price anchors after recording average Week 27 prices of EUR 164.31/MWh and EUR 162.04/MWh, respectively. Croatia averaged EUR 142.57/MWh, while Serbia saw prices rise 26.3% to EUR 139.93/MWh. These markets are expected to remain the primary focus for week-ahead price risk.

Demand conditions shaping peak pricing

The first forecast trigger is electricity demand, with SEE consumption increasing 2.1% to 18.80 TWh. Higher demand was reported in Türkiye, Greece and Romania as the main drivers. If temperatures stay elevated and cooling demand remains strong, peak prices should continue to receive support. A meaningful easing in temperatures could reduce load pressure and weaken the bullish outlook.

Supported by

Renewables, hydro and gas as key drivers

The second trigger is variable renewable generation, which fell 3.3% in Week 27. Wind generation declined 5.1%, while solar output decreased 1.8%. A recovery in wind output would be the clearest bearish signal for prices, particularly if it coincides with periods of high demand or improves supply in markets linked to Romania, Hungary and Serbia.

The third indicator is hydropower performance, with regional hydro generation down 3.4% in Week 27. The decline reduces availability of flexible, low-cost electricity. Recovery in hydropower output in Bulgaria, Romania, Serbia or Türkiye would help ease system pressure. Continued weakness would increase reliance on thermal generation and support peak prices.

The fourth trigger involves natural gas costs reflected in TTF futures, which averaged EUR 43.59/MWh in Week 27. Prices were up 5.5% week on week and moved above EUR 45/MWh by the end of the period. Firm gas prices would keep gas-fired generation costs supportive for peak power prices. A material drop in TTF would weaken the fuel-cost component of the bullish case.

Import flows influencing regional spreads

The fifth major trigger is cross-border flows, with SEE net imports rising 28.2% to 1.25 TWh. Import requirements increased for Hungary, Romania and Serbia during Week 27. Continued growth in imports into these premium markets would support regional spreads. Stronger export balances in Greece, Bulgaria or Türkiye could reduce pressure on the region’s supply-demand balance.

Scenario conditions for the coming week

In the bullish scenario, hot weather persists, wind generation remains weak and hydropower does not recover. TTF prices hold above the mid-EUR 40s/MWh rangeEUR 40s/MWh range

[Removed]