Week 27 highlights 19:00–22:00 stress period
The 19:00–22:00 window emerged as the primary stress period in Southeast European day-ahead electricity markets in Week 27. The evening peak is described as the most critical pricing window, supported by stronger demand and weaker renewable generation after solar output declines. Cooling demand remained elevated as solar generation faded during the evening. Electricity systems therefore relied more on dispatchable thermal generation and cross-border imports during those hours.
Demand and renewable output shift weekly fundamentals
Across Southeast Europe, electricity demand increased 2.1% to 18.80 TWh during Week 27. Variable renewable generation fell 3.3%, while hydropower output declined 3.4%. The combination of higher consumption and lower renewable production tightened regional supply conditions. This increased the need for conventional generation to balance the system.
Thermal generation rises as renewables fall
Thermal generation increased 6.5% to 6.86 TWh to compensate for lower renewable output. Lignite and coal-fired generation rose 11.6% within the thermal mix. Gas-fired output climbed 3.3% over the same week. With more reliance on thermal plants, fuel costs and plant availability became more influential for electricity prices, particularly during the evening peak demand window.
Highest-priced markets concentrate evening pressure
Pricing pressure remained concentrated in the region’s highest-priced day-ahead markets during Week 27. Romania recorded an average day-ahead price of EUR 164.31/MWh, followed by Hungary at EUR 162.04/MWh, Croatia at EUR 142.57/MWh and Serbia at EUR 139.93/MWh. These markets were expected to remain central for traders targeting peak and super-peak products, where volatility tends to be greatest.
Net imports increase sensitivity to interconnector conditions
Cross-border flows reinforced the evening peak outlook in Week 27. Hungary, Romania and Serbia all increased their net imports over the week, indicating greater dependence on regional electricity supplies during periods of high demand. This pattern can leave evening prices more sensitive to interconnector availability and supply conditions in neighbouring markets.
Peak-to-baseload spreads tracked alongside fuel and wind levels
Basing analysis solely on baseload prices was described as insufficient for market participants. The focus was placed on whether evening peak prices continued strengthening relative to daily averages. If wind generation stayed subdued and natural gas prices remained elevated, peak-to-baseload spreads were expected to stay well supported across Southeast Europe.
Trading outlook for the evening peak window
The 19:00–22:00 evening peak window was expected to remain the region’s most important trading opportunity. Unless renewable generation improved significantly or demand eased, Romania, Hungary, Serbia and Croatia were expected to remain key markets where tightening supply conditions support elevated peak electricity prices.
