The Southeast European electricity market opened Friday with a split between the tightly connected Hungary–Romania–Slovenia–Croatia zone and lower-priced southern Balkan markets. The key driver was the deteriorating availability outlook for Paks nuclear power in Hungary, where exceptionally low Danube water levels increased the risk of a complete shutdown. The supply concern showed up across spot pricing, cross-border flows and forward curves, with the largest move in Hungary’s week-ahead market.
Spot price convergence across Hungary, Romania, Slovenia and Croatia
Hungarian day-ahead electricity prices settled at €157.81/MWh, up €25.70/MWh from Thursday. Romania cleared at €155.33/MWh, while Slovenia and Croatia reached €157.65/MWh and €156.49/MWh, respectively. The four markets traded within a range of just over €2/MWh, indicating common regional influences including tighter Hungarian supply and higher import needs.
Germany strengthened to €148.59/MWh, while Hungary kept a premium of €9.22/MWh. Austria cleared at €155.61/MWh, only €2.20/MWh below HUPX. The comparatively small spreads in Central Europe pointed to continued linkage between Hungary and the wider region despite reduced domestic output.
Hungary’s generation outlook and import requirement
Forecast average domestic generation in Hungary fell to 2,667 MW, compared with 3,209 MW on Thursday and more than 20% below Monday’s level. Electricity consumption rose to 4,871 MW, lifting the net import requirement to about 2,203 MW versus 1,599 MW a day earlier. Off-peak periods showed the highest dependence, with an average net deficit of 3,285 MW.
The vulnerability was visible in the prior day’s generation mix, with Paks output averaging 961 MW compared with around 1,830–1,850 MW during the previous weekend. On 30 July, nuclear provided about 31% of Hungarian electricity output while solar accounted for 51%. With solar production dropping after sunset and reduced nuclear availability removing stable baseload support into evening demand, system exposure increased.
HUPX hourly pricing profile and flexibility signals
On HUPX, the daily minimum stayed unusually high at €83.30/MWh during hour 16. The evening maximum reached €268.60/MWh during hour 20. Peak-hour prices averaged €136.00/MWh while off-peak prices averaged €179.60/MWh.
The off-peak premium reflected expensive evening and overnight hours included in those averages, while strong daytime solar output suppressed daytime prices. The pricing pattern pointed to higher value for battery storage, flexible generation and hydro balancing capacity.
Romania’s day-ahead move and cross-border flows
Romania’s OPCOM day-ahead market rose by €25.20/MWh to €155.33/MWh following Thursday’s settlement changes. Prices ranged from €83.30/MWh to €271.20/MWh during the evening peak period. Romania’s net position weakened as imports increased from 376 MW to 480 MW despite domestic generation rising slightly to 5,228 MW.
Electricity consumption increased to 5,708 MW as cross-border trading supported coverage of Hungary’s supply deficit. Average exports from Romania to Hungary increased to 1,605 MW and reached 2,301 MW during peak hours. Romania also imported around 2,088 MW from Bulgaria, reinforcing the Bulgaria–Romania–Hungary corridor as one of the main regional trading routes.
Bulgaria generation increase and IBEX discount
Bulgaria raised electricity generation from 4,516 MW to 5,242 MW, allowing net exports to rise to 1,379 MW despite higher domestic consumption. Demand increased by 531 MW to 3,863 MW while exports averaged 2,088 MW to Romania and around 297 MW to Serbia. These export flows were partly offset by imports of approximately 1,101 MW from Greece.
Despite stronger exports, Bulgaria’s IBEX market cleared at €124.75/MWh below the northern regional cluster. The Bulgarian market traded at a discount of €33.06/MWh versus HUPX with prices ranging from €40/MWh to €180.70/MWh. The spread indicated that renewable availability and transmission congestion limited full convergence with Romania and Hungary.
Serbia remains cheaper but sees peak-hour import concentration
Serbia’s SEEPEX day-ahead price increased by €8.30/MWh to €113.07/MWh while keeping a discount of €44.74/MWh versus Hungary. Serbian electricity consumption rose by 327 MW (about 9%) to reach 3,940 MW. Forecast generation moved up from 3,053 MW to 3,400 MW, reducing net imports from 560 MW to 540 MW.
Import exposure was concentrated during peak hours with net imports averaging 906 MW versus 174 MW outside peak periods . Scheduled inflows were largest from North Macedonia at 374 MW and from Bulgaria at 297 MW; Hungary supplied an additional 115 MW and Bosnia and Herzegovina contributed 41 MW . Serbia exported average flows of 121 MW to Montenegro and 105 MW to Croatia.
SEEPEX intraday volatility and southern Balkan price levels
The SEEPEX daily minimum reached €60.10/MWh during hour 13 while the evening maximum climbed to €250.10/MWh during hour 20 . The low daily average therefore masked significant intraday volatility as Serbia traded more than €44/MWh below Hungary on average . Evening scarcity prices approached levels seen in Hungary, Romania and Montenegro.
Greece declined by €2.60/MWh to €89.96/MWh on Friday’s day-ahead market for a record daily discount of €67.85/MWh versus HUPX . Greek generation increased to 9,008 MW against consumption of 7,222 MW supporting net exports of 1,787 MW; exports included about 1,101 MW to Bulgaria plus deliveries of 469 MW to North Macedonia and about 200 MW to Albania .
HENEX zero-price hour; Albania higher; Montenegro lower
The HENEX market recorded a zero-price hour during hour 16 while the daily maximum reached only €154.80/MWh . Strong daytime renewable availability combined with high export volumes kept Greece structurally cheaper even as limited interconnection capacity constrained relief into Hungary and central Southeast Europe .
Albania moved higher by €70.10/MWh to €158.09/MWh after settling at only €87.99/MWh on Thursday . Montenegro declined by €5.30/MWh to €146.43/MWh; off-peak prices remained elevated at €181.20/MWh with a maximum reaching €250/MWh during hour 21 . Montenegro consumption rose to 461 MW while generation reached only 326 MW leaving net imports of 135 MW.
North Macedonia discount; system-wide balances across SEE and Hungary
North Macedonia remained the second-cheapest market after Greece with its price down by €12.40/MWh to €105.31/MWh . Its net balance improved to an export position of about 18 MW while commercial flows continued highlighting its role as a transit market connecting Bulgaria, Greece (including deliveries into North Macedonia), Kosovo and Serbia .
The combined SEE and Hungarian system consumed 33,397 MW on Friday’s assessment period after an increase of 1,129 MW (about 3.5%) versus Thursday . Forecast generation reached 32,080 MW leaving net imports of 1,317 MW . Imports into Hungary and Slovenia averaged 1,858 MW from Austria and Slovakia while exports from Southeast Europe towards Italy declined to 765 MW; Italy recorded its highest national day-ahead price at €186.23/MWh.
Confirmed generation changes behind Friday’s conditions; forward curve jump
Confirmed Thursday generation data showed wind output rising by 746 MW to 3,191 MW while nuclear output fell by 323 MW to 4,143 . Solar generation decreased by 376 MW to 7,331, coal output increased by 355 MW to 5,821, and gas-fired generation fell slightly to 4,597. A published renewable forecast for 31 July contained a spreadsheet error meaning aggregate balances remain usable but detailed technology splits should not be treated as fully validated .
The forward market carried a stronger risk signal than spot pricing as Hungarian Week 32 jumped by €70/MWh
