TTF averaged €49.00/MWh in Week 24, up 0.9% week on week. Prices strengthened during midweek before falling to €46.77/MWh on Friday. Intraday moves continued, while the weekly range remained broadly intact.
Winter cycle pressures show up in forward pricing and global spreads
Despite the weekly stability, market fundamentals are shifting toward the winter pricing cycle. Europe is facing storage refill requirements, reduced flexibility from Russian pipeline flows, and stronger competition for global LNG cargoes. The one-month TTF forward was quoted at €41.180/MWh.
International benchmarks also showed a widening spread on June 16. Henry Hub was at $3.24/MMBtu and JKM at $15.940/MMBtu. The divergence between Atlantic and Asian-linked pricing continued to shape Europe’s LNG supply challenge.
LNG import patterns diverge across Italy, Greece and Croatia
LNG flows across Europe reflected uneven regional balances during the period. Italy recorded a recovery in imports to 3,803.52 GWh, up 34.11% week on week. Greece saw imports fall by 29.8% to 603.87 GWh. Croatia remained largely stable at 640.83 GWh, down 0.7%.
The changes pointed to allocation being influenced by localized demand signals rather than uniform consumption across the region. Italy’s position as a key destination within Southeast Europe was linked to high electricity demand and sustained thermal generation needs. A persistent power price premium also supported its LNG attractiveness.
Southeast Europe gas-to-power links shift as coal and lignite dominate dispatch
Germany was expected to increase its pull on LNG cargoes as seasonal demand rises and winter spreads widen. France and Spain were described as less competitive under prevailing conditions, while the United Kingdom was expected to remain relatively less attractive until at least early 2027.
In Southeast Europe, gas market developments continued to intersect with electricity dynamics even when weekly power dispatch relied on coal and lignite. In Week 24, gas-fired generation across the region declined by 58.0 GWh while coal output increased significantly. This limited the immediate transmission of TTF price moves into power markets.
The relationship could tighten again during winter if LNG competition intensifies and gas-to-power margins come under pressure. Forward risk was concentrated in storage replenishment needs, destination competition, and global LNG allocation dynamics between Europe and Asia for flexible supply.
