In the third week of February, European electricity markets exhibited a varied performance, with overall price averages declining despite notable surges in the Iberian Peninsula. Weekly average prices fell across most markets, reflecting a complex interplay of factors influencing supply and demand dynamics. The Iberian market notably diverged from this trend, witnessing dramatic increases of 230% in Spain and an astonishing 581% in Portugal.
During this period, the Nordic and Italian markets reported average prices of €93.02/MWh and €104.82/MWh, respectively, while several markets fell below €90/MWh. The lowest weekly averages were recorded in Portugal (€14.86/MWh), Spain (€20.57/MWh), and France (€28.32/MWh). Other European markets displayed significant variability, with Belgium averaging €72.82/MWh and Germany at €86.13/MWh.
Daily price fluctuations highlighted the volatility within the region. On February 16, Portugal’s average price plummeted to €3.50/MWh, while Spain also dipped below €5/MWh on the same day. France recorded its lowest daily price since October 2025 at €9.56/MWh on February 22. Italy’s price fell to €86.34/MWh, marking its lowest since late October 2025, and Belgium reached €43.92/MWh, its lowest since November 2025. Similarly, Germany, Great Britain, and the Netherlands experienced their lowest prices since early January on February 22.
Despite these declines, certain markets still saw daily prices exceed €100/MWh during the week. Italy consistently surpassed this threshold, with the Nordic market achieving a peak average of €128.91/MWh on February 18—the highest among analyzed markets for that week.
Several factors contributed to the overall downward pressure on prices during this period. Lower gas prices and CO₂ emission allowance costs played a significant role, alongside increased solar generation and reduced demand across many regions. Additionally, higher wind production in Germany, France, and Italy helped stabilize prices further downward. Conversely, diminished wind output in the Iberian Peninsula was a key driver behind the sharp price increases observed in Spain and Portugal.
Looking ahead, forecasts from AleaSoft Energy indicate a potential rise in electricity prices across most European markets for the fourth week of February due to anticipated reductions in wind generation. However, declining demand could counteract this trend in Germany and Belgium, while an expected surge in solar output in Germany may also temper price increases.
