In the third week of February, Brent oil futures on the ICE market exhibited a predominantly upward trend. Prices reached a weekly low of $67.42 per barrel on February 17 but rebounded significantly to a peak of $71.76 per barrel by February 20. This increase of 5.9% compared to the previous week marks the highest price level since July 31, 2025, according to market analysis.
The rise in Brent prices can be attributed to escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Concurrently, there were expectations surrounding renewed negotiations between the United States and Iran, potential peace discussions between Russia and Ukraine, and speculation about OPEC+ potentially increasing production in April. Despite a temporary decline in prices early in the week due to these factors, the lack of progress in negotiations led to a resurgence in Brent prices later in the week.
In parallel developments, TTF gas futures for the Front Month on the ICE market experienced volatility. The minimum settlement price was recorded at €29.82 per megawatt-hour on February 17, marking the lowest point since January 10. Subsequently, prices climbed above €31/MWh, reaching a high of €33.52/MWh on February 19 before settling at €32.03/MWh on February 20, which is 1.4% lower than the previous Friday’s closing price.
Factors influencing gas prices included milder temperature forecasts across Europe and increased temperatures in the United States, which enhanced LNG export availability. These conditions initially drove gas prices down below €30/MWh. However, concerns regarding potential supply disruptions due to rising tensions between the U.S. and Iran contributed to price increases later in the week, although Friday’s closing price remained slightly below that of the prior week.
Turning to CO₂ emission allowance futures on the EEX market for December 2026 contracts, prices hit a weekly low of €69.16 per tonne on February 16, representing the lowest level since May 2, 2025. Throughout the remainder of the week, prices generally stayed above €70/t and experienced gains across most trading sessions. By February 20, CO₂ futures had climbed to a maximum of €73.79/t, reflecting a 4.4% increase from the previous Friday.
