Electricity.Trade’s May 2026 market analysis points to Croatia as one of the region’s most significant electricity import-dependent markets. On the CROPEX day-ahead market, the average price rose to €103.58/MWh. The level increased by 14.55% versus April and by 23.48% versus May 2025, placing Croatia above Bulgaria and Serbia while keeping prices close to Hungary’s €106.51/MWh.
The higher price did not coincide with stronger trading activity on the exchange. Monthly traded volume fell to 877.24 GWh, down 3.97% month on month. It remained 19.79% higher than in May 2025, indicating a divergence between price movements and liquidity.
Import share rises as net imports reach 583.90 GWh
A central indicator in the analysis is Croatia’s growing reliance on imported electricity. Net imports totaled 583.90 GWh in May, up 20.59% from April. Imports accounted for 43.78% of Croatia’s electricity mix during the month.
Domestic generation composition also shows limited thermal balancing options. Renewables represented 33.19% of generation, while hydropower made up 22.83%. Natural gas contributed only 0.19%, leaving Croatia with constrained thermal flexibility relative to supply needs.
With imports forming the largest part of supply, Croatian price formation became more dependent on regional conditions. The analysis links this to cross-border capacity availability and electricity supply levels in neighbouring markets, alongside broader regional availability factors.
Cross-border flows connect Central Europe and the Western Balkans
Croatia’s cross-border trading patterns reflect its position between Central Europe and the Western Balkans. In May, Croatia imported electricity from Hungary and Slovenia. It exported electricity to Bosnia and Herzegovina and Serbia.
This flow structure places Croatia between more liquid Central European markets and Balkan power systems, according to the analysis. The scale of imports also increases exposure to transmission constraints and changes in generation driven by weather conditions.
The same import profile affects how neighbouring surplus availability can influence Croatian supply conditions. When surplus is available or constrained across borders, it can alter the balance feeding into Croatian market outcomes.
Hydropower decline coincides with higher wholesale prices
Hydropower conditions added pressure to the Croatian market in May. Hydro generation fell by 21.17% compared with April, reducing one of the country’s key sources of flexibility.
Renewable output remained close to the prior month, rising by only 0.13%. The analysis notes that this meant Croatia did not see renewable generation growth comparable to markets including Bulgaria, Romania and Greece during the same period.
The combination of weaker hydro availability, limited thermal capacity and higher import needs is cited as contributing to the sharp increase in wholesale prices observed in May.
Liquidity and cross-border spreads become key trader variables
The analysis frames Croatia as a market where traders need to assess import requirements alongside cross-border spreads and liquidity conditions together. It highlights that CROPEX continued showing long-term market growth through higher annual trading volumes.
At the same time, monthly activity declined during a period when prices were elevated on the exchange. Electricity.Trade’s assessment characterises Croatia as a premium-risk electricity market with strong regional connections but high exposure when neighbouring supply tightens.
This makes monitoring of the Hungary–Slovenia–Western Balkans trading corridor increasingly relevant for market participants tracking how regional availability affects Croatian outcomes.
