Croatia is set to spend about €170 million to keep household electricity, gas and heating costs below market levels during the winter period. The programme is designed to shield consumers from wholesale volatility while delaying a full return to price pass-through.
The support measures are scheduled to run from Oct. 1, 2026 to March 31, 2027. Of the total budget, around €126.4 million is allocated to electricity and €43.7 million to gas and district heating.
Household bill impact and gas price assumptions
The government estimates the programme will hold the average household electricity bill at around €43.33 per month. Without intervention, officials estimate the figure would be about €58.25 per month.
Gas support is expected to prevent an estimated average price increase of roughly 16%. The policy covers both gas and district heating costs alongside electricity during the same winter window.
Frozen network tariffs and retail price separation
Transmission and distribution tariffs charged by HOPS, HEP ODS and Plinacro will remain unchanged throughout the support period. This means regulated charges do not adjust alongside underlying wholesale movements during the winter months.
The measures keep consumer energy costs more predictable for another winter while increasingly separating household bills from electricity and gas market economics. Croatia’s policy environment also reflects rising expenditure needs linked to grids, renewable integration and generation.
Wholesale conditions and longer-term policy unwinding risk
Wholesale energy markets have normalised compared with extreme levels seen in 2022, but they remain exposed to gas-price shocks, hydrology and regional electricity scarcity. The government’s approach absorbs part of that volatility through subsidies and frozen tariffs.
The same mechanism reduces near-term inflationary pressure while shifting more market risk onto the public sector. It also weakens incentives for households to respond to scarcity or reduce consumption when wholesale costs rise.
Investment needs for networks and generation financing
Extended tariff restraint can create challenges for utilities and network operators under conditions where investment requirements are rising. Croatia requires substantial transmission and distribution infrastructure investment as renewable capacity expands, while HEP continues financing generation, flexibility and hydro assets.
Keeping regulated charges unchanged can widen the gap between investment needs and consumer pricing over time. Croatia is therefore extending an energy-crisis policy into a more normal market environment, with the immediate focus on political and inflation stability.
The longer-term question is how and when Zagreb unwinds support without triggering a sharp adjustment in household bills. For the market, the latest package indicates that Croatian retail energy prices will remain politically managed even when wholesale prices move differently.
