Revised proposal for Bulgaria’s regulated wholesale gas price
Bulgargaz has withdrawn an earlier request for a small reduction in Bulgaria’s regulated wholesale gas price and replaced it with a proposal for a 4.6% increase. The change follows technical problems that disrupted contracted deliveries from Azerbaijan. For August, the state-owned supplier is seeking a regulated price of €39.43/MWh, excluding transmission and access charges, excise duty and value-added tax. Its initial application had proposed €37.36/MWh.
The earlier figure would have implied a modest decrease versus July’s regulated level of approximately €37.70/MWh. The updated tariff proposal reflects how short-term changes in contracted supply can affect the regulated pricing calculation. Azerbaijan is described as Bulgargaz’s principal long-term supplier outside Russia and as central to Bulgaria’s diversification strategy.
Replacement volumes via Turkey and implications for supply costs
With reduced August deliveries from Azerbaijan, Bulgargaz would need to secure replacement volumes through Turkey. The final cost of those replacement purchases is expected to depend on prevailing regional prices, available capacity and commercial terms. The source also links Azerbaijani supply with a more competitive supply component for Bulgaria compared with short-term purchases in neighbouring markets.
Any interruption affects both physical availability and the weighted-average cost used in the regulated price calculation. While the proposed increase is characterised as moderate compared with earlier gas-price shocks seen during Europe’s supply crisis, it is still expected to feed into downstream costs. Those include expenses for district heating companies, industrial consumers and gas-fired generators.
Link to power market outcomes and diversification limits
The impact on electricity prices would depend on how frequently gas units become marginal during August. This is particularly relevant during evening periods when solar production falls. The episode is also presented as evidence that diversification does not remove supply risk entirely.
Bulgaria has expanded access to multiple routes including Azerbaijan, Greece, Turkey and LNG infrastructure, but each route remains exposed to technical outages, congestion and commercial availability. In this case, Bulgargaz’s ability to secure replacement gas through Turkey prevents the Azerbaijani disruption from turning into a physical supply problem. However, the proposed €39.43/MWh regulated tariff is set to transfer part of the replacement cost to the domestic market.
