In the early days of February, European energy markets exhibited varied trends, particularly in Brent oil, TTF gas, and CO₂ futures. Brent oil futures on the ICE market struggled to maintain momentum, remaining below the $70/bbl threshold throughout the week. The lowest settlement price was recorded at $66.30/bbl on February 2, with a subsequent rise leading to a peak of $69.46/bbl by February 4. However, by the end of the week on February 6, prices settled at $68.05/bbl, reflecting a decrease of 3.7% from the previous week’s closing price.
The fluctuations in Brent oil prices were influenced by ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which contributed to the midweek price increase. Anticipation surrounding US-Iran negotiations scheduled for February 6 tempered these gains as market participants remained cautious.
Meanwhile, TTF gas futures also displayed volatility within the same timeframe. The week commenced with a decline, hitting a low of €32.86/MWh on February 3 before experiencing an upward trend that culminated in a weekly maximum settlement price of €35.69/MWh on February 6. Despite this increase, it represented a drop of 9.1% compared to the previous Friday’s figures.
The stability in TTF gas prices can be attributed to an increase in US liquefied natural gas (LNG) availability, which played a crucial role in maintaining prices below €36/MWh. Additionally, reduced supply concerns from the Strait of Hormuz helped mitigate price spikes. However, decreased wind energy production led to higher demand for gas in electricity generation, further supporting late-week price increases amid forecasts of low temperatures and diminished European storage levels.
On another front, CO₂ emission allowance futures for the December 2026 contract on the EEX market reflected a downward trajectory during this period. The highest recorded settlement price was €83.28/t on February 2, but prices subsequently fell to €78.20/t by February 5—the lowest since October 1, 2025. A slight recovery occurred by February 6, with prices closing at €78.74/t, still down by 3.1% from the prior week.
This mixed performance across key energy commodities underscores the complexities facing European energy markets as they navigate geopolitical uncertainties and shifting supply-demand dynamics.
