Southeast Europe’s electricity import balance is expected to become more uneven this autumn as cooling demand fades, industrial load returns, and shorter daylight hours increase evening dependence on conventional generation and cross-border supply. Romania entered September as one of the most exposed markets.
In August, Romania’s average consumption was around 5.43 GW. The system was a net importer by roughly 341 MW, with domestic generation covering about 94% of demand. Nuclear availability is expected to be decisive for the autumn balance.
Nuclear output and solar decline shape import needs
Hungary should remain structurally dependent on imports despite Paks nuclear generation. The exposure is expected to be most pronounced during high-demand periods when solar output falls. Croatia and Slovenia are also likely to stay import-oriented, though reservoir hydro can materially change their positions after stronger rainfall.
Bulgaria has the strongest potential to remain a regional exporter when Kozloduy is fully available. In June, exports substantially exceeded imports as nuclear, hydro and rapidly growing solar generation supported the balance.
Renewables variability and gas-backed supply in Greece
Greece is expected to oscillate between renewable surplus and gas-backed deficit periods. Its import requirement should weaken as summer cooling demand falls. Gas generation is still expected to be critical during weak wind conditions and post-sunset hours.
The Western Balkans are expected to remain more weather-sensitive across the season. Serbia’s lignite and hydro fleet can cover domestic demand during favourable periods, but outages or drought can rapidly increase imports.
Hydrology-driven swing markets across the Western Balkans
Montenegro’s balance remains highly dependent on Pljevlja thermal availability and hydro conditions. Albania is described as the region’s clearest hydrological swing market, moving from exporter in wet periods to expensive importer during drought. North Macedonia is likely to remain structurally import-dependent.
Bosnia can return to export when hydro conditions improve, but it remains exposed to ageing coal assets. The autumn market is not expected to divide simply between exporters and importers. Instead, the key distinction is between systems with firm domestic flexibility and those forced to buy electricity during expensive evening hours.
