Romania’s day-ahead power price reached €250.35/MWh on Friday, the highest among Southeast Europe’s major markets, even as prices fell across most of the region. Lower demand and a sharp recovery in solar generation eased the regional balance. Continued dependence on imports nevertheless kept Romania, Montenegro, Bulgaria and Serbia among Europe’s more expensive power markets for day-ahead electricity.
Hungary’s HUPX benchmark fell €29.1/MWh to €234.07/MWh, while Serbia’s SEEPEX declined €18.4/MWh to €242.27/MWh. Montenegro stood at €246.60/MWh and Bulgaria at €245.91/MWh. Slovenia dropped €13.7/MWh to €214.92/MWh, Croatia fell €13.2/MWh to €220.86/MWh, and North Macedonia declined €16.7/MWh to €232.80/MWh.
The decline was not uniform: Greece rose €24.5/MWh to €225.80/MWh, Italy gained €15.1/MWh to €240.44/MWh, and Montenegro increased €7.7/MWh. Germany remained much cheaper at €137.59/MWh, leaving Hungary at a €96.49/MWh premium despite its price decline. That spread narrowed by around €18/MWh from Thursday but remained wide, underscoring persistent congestion and the value of north-to-south transmission capacity.
Solar recovery reshapes hourly prices
Solar generation was the main downward influence on prices. Regional output was forecast at about 5.15 GW, more than 2 GW higher day on day, while wind generation fell by almost 2.8 GW to around 795 MW. Forecast regional consumption declined by about 1.26 GW from Thursday to 31.31 GW.
The changing generation mix produced a more pronounced difference between prices at different hours of the day. HUPX baseload averaged €234.1/MWh, but its hourly price fell to €86.7/MWh during the solar-heavy middle of the day before reaching a maximum of €314.5/MWh. Hungarian peak power averaged €192.2/MWh, substantially below the €276/MWh off-peak average.
Those figures show how solar generation is increasingly suppressing conventional daytime peak prices while shifting scarcity towards morning and evening hours. In Greece, peak power averaged €197/MWh against €254.6/MWh off-peak, and the HENEX minimum recovered to €90/MWh after falling close to zero in the previous session. The widening gap between solar hours and evening periods is becoming an increasingly important trading signal for batteries, flexible generation and industrial consumers.
Import requirements remain substantial
Despite the spot-price decline, Southeast Europe remained structurally short of electricity. Net imports across Hungary and SEE were forecast at about 3.62 GW, down 872 MW from Thursday but still substantial. Imports from the Austrian and Slovak direction remained particularly high at around 4.21 GW.
At the same time, the region shifted to net exports of about 519 MW towards Italy. The opposing flows show electricity moving through several interconnected price zones, rather than simply from western Europe into a single SEE deficit area. Romania had one of the largest deficits, with forecast consumption of about 6.30 GW against generation of around 4.66 GW, leaving average imports near 1.63 GW.
Hungary was also heavily reliant on imported electricity: consumption stood at roughly 4.23 GW and domestic generation at around 3.13 GW, leaving imports of approximately 1.10 GW. In Serbia, forecast consumption of around 4.01 GW exceeded generation of roughly 3.20 GW, producing an average import requirement of about 809 MW. That deficit helps explain why SEEPEX remained at €242.27/MWh after falling almost €20/MWh from the previous session.
Serbia traded roughly €8/MWh above Hungary and more than €100/MWh above Germany, highlighting the importance of cross-border capacity, domestic generation availability and balancing requirements for its wholesale prices. Croatia also remained a large importer, with a deficit of around 863 MW. Greece moved in the opposite direction: generation of around 6.47 GW exceeded consumption of approximately 5.24 GW, leaving exports of roughly 1.23 GW.
Hungary’s transit role and regional spreads
Cross-border flows showed Hungary’s importance both as an importing market and as a transit hub. It imported heavily from Slovakia and Austria while sending large volumes eastwards towards Romania. Commercial Hungary-to-Romania flows reached around 1.58 GW on a baseload basis.
Importing from cheaper western and central European markets while exporting towards higher-priced eastern markets places Hungary at the centre of the regional trading system. The Germany-Hungary spread therefore remains one of the most important signals for SEE electricity traders. Even with several gigawatts moving towards the region, available transmission capacity is insufficient to fully close the price difference.
Forward power and fuel prices strengthen
Forward power markets remained considerably firmer than Friday’s spot correction. Hungarian Week 44 power rose to €265.50/MWh, Week 45 increased to €271.50/MWh, and November climbed to €255.50/MWh. The November Hungary-Germany forward spread stood at around €57.50/MWh, while the Week 44 spread remained close to €90/MWh.
Fuel prices also strengthened. Austrian CEGH gas rose to €91.77/MWh, Greek gas to €81.56/MWh, and EU carbon allowances to €86.47/tCO₂. November gas traded around €91.50/MWh, while November coal stood near $151 a tonne.
The divergence between weaker day-ahead power and stronger forward contracts was a central signal from Friday’s session. Lower demand and stronger solar output provided temporary relief in spot markets, but Southeast Europe still relied on several gigawatts of imports. The Germany-Hungary differential remained exceptionally wide, while Romania, Serbia, Bulgaria and Montenegro continued to trade at substantial premiums to western Europe.
Hourly volatility is becoming more significant than a single daily high or low price. Solar output is compressing midday prices, while declining renewable generation towards evening again exposes the region to gas, coal, imports and transmission constraints. For traders, generators and storage investors, the widening hourly spread is becoming one of the most important characteristics of the Southeast European power market.
