European hub gas traded at around €70-73/MWh in early September, with October contracts at similar levels. The outlook for marginal supply is linked to LNG availability and storage conditions.
Storage levels and LNG-linked price sensitivity
EU gas storage is only about two-thirds full, well below normal for early September. This leaves the market more sensitive to weather-driven demand and changes in global LNG supply. Continued injections are expected to support demand through September.
Southeast Europe’s infrastructure changes
Southeast Europe is entering autumn with a more diversified gas infrastructure position than at any point since the European energy crisis. The main improvement comes from infrastructure rather than a change in regional pricing levels. Greece has expanded its LNG gateway role through Revythoussa and Alexandroupolis.
The Vertical Gas Corridor is being extended toward Serbia and North Macedonia. Bulgaria also retains access to lower-cost Azerbaijani volumes. Bulgaria entered September with a regulated gas price of €41.60/MWh, materially below European hubs.
Regional supply routes and seasonal demand
Romania has the region’s strongest indigenous gas position, with Black Sea production expected to increase over coming years. This should reduce import dependence further as supplies from the Black Sea grow. Hungary and Serbia retain access to Russian gas through the southern route while progressively adding alternative connections.
These supply options reduce the risk of physical shortages, but they do not remove price exposure. If international LNG remains constrained, markets buying hub-linked gas in Greece and elsewhere are expected to continue paying near European benchmark prices. September is set to see cooling demand fall, while storage injections continue supporting overall demand.
October brings the first heating load, which could keep TTF and CEGH firm even as power-sector gas consumption declines from summer highs. The base case points to adequate physical gas alongside expensive marginal supply. There is upside risk if Middle East disruptions intensify or if Europe enters winter with inventories below target.
