Brent crude has moved above $95/barrel, while European diesel markets have tightened more sharply. Record refining margins, Middle East disruption and restricted Russian exports are cited as factors lifting transport and industrial fuel costs.
Refining margins and supply competition
Physical diesel refining margins reached around $95-100/barrel in early September, more than double June levels. European buyers competed for limited supplies sourced from the United States, the Middle East and Asia. The margin level is linked to the tighter availability of physical diesel into the region.
Exposure in road freight, agriculture and construction
Southeast Europe faces a potentially sharper autumn shock from diesel than from crude oil. Diesel remains central to road freight, agriculture, construction and mining across the sub-region. With diesel supply conditions tightening, those sectors are exposed to higher fuel costs.
Serbia’s licence expiry and refinery operations
Serbia has an additional country-specific risk tied to sanctions licensing. An OFAC licence allowing NIS to import crude, operate the Pančevo refinery and conduct supply-security transactions expires on Sept. 30. An extension or an ownership solution is described as a major variable for October market conditions.
Croatia’s Rijeka upgrade and Romania’s refining base
Croatia is comparatively better positioned after INA completed its nearly €700 million Rijeka refinery upgrade. The upgrade is designed to raise diesel output by around 30% and reduce import dependence. Romania also retains substantial domestic refining capacity.
Regional price outlook into October
Across the broader region, September prices are expected to stay elevated while Russia’s diesel export restrictions remain in place and global refining capacity is stretched. October could soften if export flows normalise and refinery maintenance ends. A retreat in crude prices would not automatically translate into an equivalent fall in diesel.
The main autumn risk is described as a refined-product shortage premium. Such a premium could raise logistics, agricultural and industrial costs even without another major rise in Brent.
