Day-ahead electricity prices fell across most Southeast European markets for Friday delivery, with Serbia and Greece leading the declines. The moves came as stronger solar and wind forecasts outweighed lower regional imports, while forecast consumption was largely stable. A wider gap between Central and Western European power prices also pointed to ongoing cross-border constraints and evening supply risks.
In Hungary, the HUPX base price dropped by €16.8/MWh to €179.78/MWh. Romania fell €20.9 to €175.92/MWh, while Bulgaria declined €23.9 to €169.02/MWh and Greece recorded a sharper fall of €33.3 to €159.57/MWh.
Serbia posted the lowest price among the main SEE markets at €149.76/MWh, down €35.2/MWh from the previous session. This left SEEPEX at a €30.02/MWh discount to HUPX. Slovenia and Croatia converged at around €169/MWh, while Montenegro settled at €176.41/MWh and North Macedonia at €156.42/MWh.
Albania moved against the regional trend, rising €7.9/MWh to €181.57/MWh, slightly above Hungary’s level. Italy remained the most expensive adjacent market at €211.17/MWh, while Germany recorded a substantially lower price of €88.95/MWh.
Cross-border spreads widen alongside lower SEE prices
The contrasting movements widened the HUPX-Germany day-ahead spread to €90.82/MWh, nearly €28/MWh more than in the previous session. Hungary also maintained a €20.21/MWh premium over Greece, reflecting continued divergence between Western European and SEE power markets despite the broader regional decline.
Renewables forecasts lift generation while imports ease
The main bearish influence on Friday’s SEE power markets was the expected increase in renewable generation . Forecast solar output across the monitored region rose by approximately 1,154 MW day on day to 7,122 MW, while wind generation increased by 318 MW to 2,375 MW.
Forecast electricity consumption remained virtually unchanged at 32,689 MW, only 29 MW higher than the previous day . The price decline was also linked to expectations of reduced reliance on imports, with net HU+SEE imports falling to 1,954 MW from 2,637 MW.
Inflows from the Austrian and Slovak direction dropped by 861 MW to 2,888 MW . At the same time, exports towards Italy increased to 1,279 MW from 1,052 MW, sustaining a south-to-west flow despite Italy’s significantly higher prices.
Hourly volatility persists during the evening ramp
Even with lower average prices, hourly market structures remained highly volatile . On HUPX, Friday prices fell to as little as €51.1/MWh around hour 14 before rising to €304.1/MWh in hour 21.
The resulting €253/MWh intraday range reflected a stronger contrast between solar-rich daytime hours and the evening ramp . Serbia showed a similar pattern: SEEPEX prices fell to a minimum of €69.9/MWh around hour 13 before climbing to €244.9/MWh in hour 21.
Serbia’s base price of €149.76/MWh stayed above the seven-day average of €142.2/MWh despite the steep day-on-day decline . This indicated that Friday’s move represented a correction from elevated levels rather than a return to consistently low-price conditions.
Forward curve mixed; gas and carbon prices ease
The forward curve offered a less uniformly bearish picture than spot markets . Hungary’s Week 37 contract increased by €4.5/MWh to €180.50/MWh, while Week 38 declined by €5/MWh to €178.50/MWh.
The October contract fell by €14/MWh to €186/MWh, while the calendar contract remained unchanged at €141/MWh . The Week 37 Hungary-Germany forward spread widened by €3/MWh to €40.50/MWh, whereas the October spread narrowed by €8.5/MWh to €36/MWh.
Lower fuel and carbon prices provided additional support for the bearish spot-market move . CEGH gas fell by €1.2/MWh to €73.69/MWh, while EU carbon allowances declined by €0.5/t to €83.53/t; October and fourth-quarter gas forwards both dropped by €2/MWh to €73/MWh.
API 2 coal eased by €0.5/t to €136.5/t . Renewable-led changes in daily pricing were reflected in Serbia’s and Greece’s Friday levels of €149.76/MWh and €159.57/MWh relative to Thursday’s elevated prices.
The evening increases remained pronounced, reaching more than €240/MWh in Serbia and more than €300/MWh in Hungary . With high evening prices alongside large HUPX-Germany spreads and reduced regional imports, cross-border capacity and system flexibility continued to be key pricing factors for SEE markets on Friday delivery.
