The geopolitical landscape is critical, as approximately 20% of global LNG transits through the Strait of Hormuz, predominantly from Qatar. However, only 8% of EU LNG imports originate from Qatar, which mitigates immediate supply risks but does not alleviate price volatility concerns. Analysts warn that an escalation in conflict could lead to intensified competition for alternative LNG supplies, potentially increasing Europe’s import costs significantly.
Financial implications are considerable; projections indicate that a doubling of gas prices could inflate European gas import expenses by about €100 billion over the next year, compared to €117 billion anticipated for 2025. This underscores the sensitivity of the market to price fluctuations amid geopolitical uncertainties.
In Southeast Europe (SEE), LNG inflows displayed a mixed trend with Greece experiencing a 23% decrease week-on-week to 510.99 GWh, while Italy’s inflows rose by 17.81% to 5,106.75 GWh. Croatia reported a dramatic increase in LNG inflows of 180.8%, reaching 712.48 GWh, highlighting its growing importance in regional gas balancing through the Adriatic corridor.
Despite these fluctuations, Europe appears more resilient than during the Russian supply crisis of 2022 due to milder weather conditions, increased LNG availability, reduced demand from China, and adequate storage levels. Data from Wood Mackenzie indicates that since early 2026, an annualized increase of 40 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) in new LNG supply has been observed, with European storage levels at 28% as of late March.
Gas continues to play a pivotal role in SEE power markets as a marginal-price determinant. Although thermal generation saw a decline during Week 18, gas-fired plants remain crucial for evening and balancing-hour electricity pricing when solar generation decreases. Greece’s gas-fired generation fell by 22.4%, contrasting with Romania’s increase of 57.1%, illustrating diverging national strategies regarding gas-to-power utilization.
The prevailing market dynamics suggest that risks associated with gas in SEE are evolving from concerns over physical shortages to those related to cost volatility. While Italy and Croatia are enhancing their LNG-backed options, Greece’s reduced inflows signal potential vulnerabilities. For utilities and large industrial consumers in the region, the critical challenge now lies not only in securing gas access but also in managing costs effectively during periods of fluctuating renewable output and peak demand scenarios.
