In Week 18, the electricity markets across Southeast Europe (SEE) exhibited notable shifts influenced by a combination of renewable energy intermittency, reduced seasonal demand, and diverging national balancing conditions. Although wholesale prices saw some easing in various markets, the data indicated increasing intraday volatility and a growing reliance on balancing flexibility rather than traditional baseload generation.
Electricity demand in the region fell by -2.82% week-on-week, totaling 14,558.6 GWh. This decline was attributed to softer industrial activity, milder weather, and decreased heating needs. Italy experienced the most significant drop in demand at -5.06%, followed closely by Hungary at -6.21%. Greece and Romania also reported moderate declines, while Türkiye’s demand remained relatively stable with only a -0.82% reduction. Serbia’s electricity consumption decreased by -3.57%, and Croatia saw a decline of -4.72%.
Despite the overall weaker demand, wholesale prices did not uniformly decline across the region; instead, market fragmentation became more pronounced. Greece and Bulgaria both recorded moderate price reductions of around -5%, while Hungary’s prices eased by -3.21%. Italy’s prices remained largely unchanged at elevated levels, whereas Romania saw a slight increase of +0.60%. Notably, Serbia and Croatia diverged from this trend, with electricity prices rising by +7.15% and +7.90%, respectively.
The pricing dynamics across the region were uneven, with Italy maintaining its position as the most expensive major market in Southern Europe at an average wholesale price of €108.49/MWh. Romania followed at €87.51/MWh, while Serbia’s prices hovered around €86/MWh, Croatia near €79/MWh, and Greece at €74.75/MWh. Türkiye experienced a drastic drop to just €7.23/MWh, marking the most substantial weekly correction among all observed markets.
A key factor contributing to the regional price easing was the rebound in renewable generation, which increased by 11.1% week-on-week to reach 3,459.6 GWh. This surge was primarily driven by a recovery in wind generation, which rose by 24.7%, while solar output remained relatively stable with a slight increase of +1.1%.
Türkiye emerged as a crucial stabilizer during this period, with wind generation nearly doubling due to an impressive increase of +98.3%, leading to an overall rise in total renewable production of 69.3%. Greece also showed significant improvements in renewable output, particularly in solar generation which increased by 26.5%, alongside a wind rise of 17.1%.
However, renewable performance was inconsistent across the region. Serbia faced one of the steepest declines in variable renewable generation at -40.4%, primarily due to unfavorable wind conditions. Bulgaria also experienced a significant drop of -22.3%, while Romania and Croatia reported moderate weaknesses in their renewable outputs.
This disparity helps explain why certain markets moved contrary to broader regional pricing trends; systems with underperforming renewables required increased thermal dispatch and balancing imports, thereby exerting upward pressure on marginal prices despite overall softer demand.
The hourly price structure revealed critical market signals for the week, showcasing deep midday price collapses followed by sharp evening increases. Several regional systems briefly entered negative-price territory during solar-heavy midday hours before rebounding into evening peaks exceeding €200/MWh.
This widening intraday spread has become a defining characteristic of the SEE electricity market transition, highlighting how rising solar penetration combined with insufficient storage solutions is creating increasingly unstable hourly pricing structures.
The dynamics observed favor flexible assets over traditional baseload generation models as battery storage systems, pumped hydro resources, fast-response gas units, ancillary services, balancing reserves, and cross-border trading capabilities gain importance across Southeast Europe.
Hydropower production remained relatively stable overall but varied significantly across nations; it declined marginally by -1.57% to reach 3,739.5 GWh. Croatia experienced a remarkable hydro rebound of +132.2%, while Serbia’s hydro generation increased by nearly 20%. Conversely, Bulgaria faced a severe hydro decline of -33.4%, along with reductions in Türkiye and Romania.
The role of hydrology is critical for balancing within SEE as hydro generation serves as the primary buffer for intermittent wind and solar outputs; countries with robust hydro resources demonstrated greater resilience against renewable intermittency during this period.
Thermal generation saw a significant decrease across the region, dropping by -9.66% week-on-week to reach 3,527.8 GWh. Coal/lignite output fell by -6.5%, while gas-fired generation dropped by -12.6%.
Türkiye reported the largest contraction in thermal production at -19%, with Hungary also reducing output materially. In Greece, lignite generation surged by +76.8%, contrasting with a drop in gas-fired generation of -22.4%, indicating strategic displacement of costly gas during peak periods using domestic lignite resources.
Romania bucked the regional trend by increasing gas-fired generation by +57.1%, reflecting tighter domestic supply-demand balances and higher reliance on dispatchable thermal capacity. Italy also slightly raised thermal output despite lower overall demand levels.
The cross-border electricity flows underwent significant changes during Week 18 as net imports across Southeast Europe decreased by -12.8% , totaling approximately 1,079.5 GWh . This shift was aided by stronger domestic renewable production coupled with reduced demand.
The most notable transition occurred in Greece which shifted from near-balance conditions into a net export position nearing approximately 109.7 GWh.
Serbia reduced its net imports significantly by almost 69%, while Romania and Hungary also lowered their external dependencies accordingly.
Bulgaria maintained its status as a net exporter although export volumes saw considerable declines during this period; Türkiye slightly adjusted its export position as improved renewable generation alleviated domestic balancing needs.
This evolving landscape underscores the increasing strategic importance of interconnectors within SEE market operations as regional electricity systems transition from isolated national frameworks towards integrated balancing mechanisms that depend on cross-border synchronization and optimization.
A critical observation from Week 18 is the persistence of high European electricity pricing despite softer regional conditions; while SEE prices experienced temporary easing, broader European markets witnessed upward movements during this timeframe, exemplified by France’s dramatic weekly increase of +63.39% alongside substantial gains across Spain, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia, Poland, Germany, and Austria.
This divergence illustrates that while Southeast Europe benefits from temporary support from renewables and hydropower resources, it remains vulnerable to overarching European gas-linked pricing mechanisms that could exert renewed upward pressure if TTF gas prices rise due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
The implications for Southeast Europe are clear: the region is transitioning into an era defined by flexibility-driven electricity markets where future evolution will hinge not solely on expanding wind and solar capacities but on rapidly deploying essential balancing infrastructure alongside these developments.
The focus will increasingly shift toward enhancing battery energy storage systems, modernizing pumped hydro resources, advancing grid digitalization efforts, developing ancillary service markets, establishing dynamic balancing platforms, and optimizing cross-border congestion management—all vital components shaping the future economic landscape of SEE’s electricity market.
This week highlighted that Southeast Europe’s power system is evolving beyond mere energy scarcity concerns; it is now increasingly characterized by challenges related to managing volatility effectively.
