In the energy markets, TTF front-month gas futures experienced a notable decline during Week 07, closing slightly below their opening levels. The week was marked by moderate volatility, with European gas prices easing despite some attempts at recovery midweek. This trend is largely attributed to stable LNG inflows and balanced market fundamentals that have alleviated short-term supply concerns.
On February 9, TTF futures peaked at €33.496/MWh, representing the highest price for the week. However, by February 10, prices fell sharply by 4.9%, reaching a low of €31.96/MWh. A modest rebound was seen from Wednesday to Thursday due to cooler weather forecasts providing temporary support. By February 13, the contract settled at €32.00/MWh, reflecting a day-on-day decrease of 1.5% and a weekly decline of approximately 2.97%. The average settlement price for the week was recorded at €32.60/MWh, indicating a 4% drop compared to the previous week.
Geopolitically, significant developments unfolded as a consortium led by Chevron signed lease agreements on February 16 to explore natural gas reserves off the southern coast of Greece. This agreement effectively doubles the area available for exploration in Greek maritime zones and aligns with the EU’s strategy to reduce reliance on Russian gas while enhancing alternative energy sources. Chevron’s exploration will focus on four deep-sea blocks covering around 47,000 square kilometers south of Crete and the Peloponnese peninsula.
Greece currently lacks domestic gas production and relies heavily on imports for its energy needs. In response to the energy crisis exacerbated by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Greece has reinvigorated its hydrocarbon exploration initiatives. The country aims to serve as a key transit point for U.S. liquefied natural gas via the Vertical Gas Corridor, which is intended to facilitate gas transport from Greece to Central Europe and Ukraine. Parliamentary approval is necessary before seismic research can commence later this year, with the consortium given up to five years to identify commercially viable deposits; however, test drilling is not expected before 2030-2032.
Concurrently, Exxon Mobil and Helleniq Energy are also pursuing exploration licenses in two additional deep-sea blocks south of Crete and are currently assessing seismic data prior to potential drilling operations. While the EU is actively expanding its renewable energy capacity to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions, it recognizes the role of natural gas as a critical transition fuel necessary for stabilizing electricity systems during periods of low renewable output.
The renewed focus on hydrocarbon exploration alongside advancements in the Vertical Corridor is poised to yield substantial developments in the near future. Consultations scheduled for February 24 in Washington will involve regional stakeholders and the European Commission addressing regulatory hurdles that have hindered significant gas flows northward. The anticipated reduction in transport costs through the Greek infrastructure, coupled with an EU ban on Russian natural gas imports set for late 2027, could create a notable supply gap that would enhance the viability of this corridor.
As these developments unfold, Greece’s strategic positioning within the European energy landscape is strengthened through its emerging role in hydrocarbon exploration and infrastructure development.
